Bumpy road to power: Nitin Gadkari's hints show his aim, but it's bad timing for the BJP
History remembers Union ministers in the passing — the real stories of politics and power revolve around Prime Ministers.
The urge to be premier of the world’s largest democracy for any Indian politician is thus only natural.
Nitin Gadkari reportedly attempting to position himself as a contender for the BJP’s top leadership — and subsequently, India’s highest chair — is well within the realm of human desire.
The rise of Gadkari’s ambitions
At a time when PM Narendra Modi’s popularity has been sliding, Nitin Gadkari has emerged on a list of probables within the BJP who could replace Modi, including party president Amit Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
Both Shah and Yogi are, however, seen as highly divisive figures — their rise to the PM’s chair could happen only if the BJP gains a full majority of its own, which looks highly unlikely as of now.
Remember, LK Advani had to make way for Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the 1990s, despite having been the mascot of Hindu mobilisation through the decade, leading the mass movement that brought the BJP to political centre-stage. But the affable Vajpayee was more acceptable to the allies than Advani could ever be.
After all, allies also are answerable to their voters.
And, allies aside, most importantly, Gadkari reportedly enjoys the full backing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
So, in the eventuality of a coalition, Gadkari does stand a strong chance.
However, in all this politicking, what Gadkari seems to have missed is the crucial point that his ambitions can only materialise if the BJP stays in contention to form a government in the first place.
If the trouble posed by various regional parties coming together wasn't enough to challenge the well-oiled election machinery of the BJP, the sudden introduction of Priyanka Gandhi by the Congress in UP politics has posed a tough challenge to the BJP’s hopes of coming back with a thumping majority.
Not only is the BJP worried by smaller parties forming formidable alliances, but also by its own allies, deserting it one by one.
The Shiv Sena, one of the BJP’s oldest allies in Maharashtra — from where Gadkari hails — has made the party look weak and vulnerable like never before.
In 2014, the BJP won 23 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena 18. The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) bagged two and four, respectively.
Significantly, after UP, it is Maharashtra that sends the maximum number of MPs to Parliament.
In the Assembly elections held there the same year, the BJP won 122 seats in a 288-member Assembly — a gain of 76 seats over its tally of 2009.
It formed a government with support from the Shiv Sena.
But things have only looked down for the party since then with a continuously critical Shiv Sena declaring it will not contest any future elections in alliance with the BJP.
The loss of the Bhandara-Gondiya Lok Sabha seat in the by-polls of May 2018 showed that a Congress-NCP alliance could disturb the BJP’s apple cart.
With so many external problems, the BJP cannot afford problems rising from within.
Gadkari’s statements that seem to be challenging his own party leadership are thus badly timed.
If the BJP has to win, Gadkari will have temper down his own ambitions.
The Union minister, however, doesn’t seem to be in a mood to do so.
What Gadkari said
He fired his first salvo after the party lost Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to the Congress in December 2018, saying that the “leadership should own up to failures”.
A day later, he alleged that his ‘detractors’ — the opposition and a section of the media apparently — were trying to "drive a wedge" between him and the party leadership.
But in his latest remarks, Gadkari seems to have crossed the lakshman rekha himself by seeming to take the attack straight to Modi. “People admire leaders who show them dreams... but when those dreams aren't fulfilled, people also beat up the leaders,” Gadkari said.
Why Gadkari can speak
Gadkari could well be Nagpur’s choice to keep the Modi-Shah duo in check. He could also emerge as the rallying point for dissidents in the party.
The current silence from Nagpur is being read as proof that Gadkari is not making off the cuff remarks, but indeed, dissent could be brewing.
However, this dissent is badly timed.
If the BJP loses its focus, and its power, Gadkari’s ambition would be halted in its tracks. He needs to hide his ambitions for now — and demand his ‘share’ when the time is more opportune.
With so many external problems to fight, the BJP cannot afford to have problems rising from within. It certainly cannot afford to be seen as a party that has multiple centres of power, and is close to losing its own central plot.
Also read: Varun Gandhi has no future in the BJP. It’s time he joins Congress, his father’s party