Will the next Islamic terror attack push France to the brink of civil war?

"I am convinced that they [Islamic State-backed terrorists] will evolve to the stage of car bombs and explosive devices, that through this they will ramp up their capabilities.” – Patrick Calvar, head of DGSI, France’s domestic security agency, on May 24, 2016.

The forecast of the security chief with more than two decades of experience, shared at a closed-door hearing of the French parliament has come true two months later, with deadly results on July 14, 2016.

A truck loaded with weapons and explosives ploughed through crowds celebrating Bastille Day at the beautiful Promenade de Anglais in the coastal holiday town of Nice, killing at least 84 people including many children and injuring 100 others, 18 of whom are in a critical condition.

The 19-tonne truck travelled two kilometers before a terrorist got off and began shooting; he kept at it till he was shot dead.

Papers recovered from the vehicle identified the attacker as a 31-year old Tunisian.

The French media that carried Calvar’s grim warnings on the future of the Islamic terror threat, quoted him as saying:

“We are in the brink of a civil war.

“This confrontation, I think it’s going to happen,” he said.

“One or two more terrorist attacks and it will start. It is therefore our duty to anticipate and block any group that aims to set off fighting between communities,” the DGSI chief added.

Can France, or for that matter, any other democratic country, succeed in preventing such confrontation?

Already, anti-Muslim right wing groups are increasing their political clout with rising public support after every jihadi attack.

The far right Front National (FN) party in France, led by Marine LePen, has made spectacular gains in popularity since 2011.

The FN’s credo includes economic protectionism, zero tolerance to law and order issues and opposition to immigration. And Jihadi terrorism will now find a place in its agenda.

In the 2014 European elections, Le Pen garnered 25 per cent of the votes and won several municipalities at the local elections. In the regional elections, FN came first, securing 28 per cent of the votes. Pollsters expect Le Pen to win the presidential elections in 2017.

Given the political compulsion to act, French President Francois Hollande, despite his socialist beliefs, will have to come out heavily on Islamic terrorists embedded among the population.  

And that is not going to be an easy task. According to Calvar’s estimate, there are 400-450 returnees from the Islamic State, already mixing with the population.

France is facing a flood of refugees from Syria and Africa. Weeding out terrorists from among them is not going to be an easy task as there are limitations in carrying out background checks on them.

France already has some of the toughest laws on terrorism. And that has already made Hollande unpopular among 4.7 million Muslims in France who face the brunt of the crackdown on terrorism.

Further tightening of anti-terrorism laws will deepen the divide between communities.

Controlling the entry of terrorists at the borders is not an easy task even for France with its sophisticated security apparatus.

Mohammad Abrini, who was one of the three terror suspects arrested by Belgian police after the Brussels attack, had this to say about border controls:

“You know an international arrest warrant, to be sought by the police doesn’t change anything. I passed everyday in front of soldiers, policemen.  Not with a covered face, but with a cap.

“Security at the borders can never protect anyone. It’s just politicians who want to delude the people that they protect them, but there is usually no real security. It has never been real,” Abrini concluded forthrightly.    Any civil confrontation in France would have its tectonic effects on Germany, which has a very high Muslim population, and on Scandinavian countries and Netherlands where anti-Muslim sentiments are running high.

As far as India is concerned, there are some home truths in Calvar’s analysis on the transformation taking place in the Islamic State after losing territory in Iraq and Syria.

According to Calvar, the ISIS is not solely dependent on "lone wolf" terror attacks in France like the last one that took place during the Euro 16 football tournament. It has learnt from its experiences in the aftermath of the Paris attacks and is determined to carry out large-scale sophisticated attacks.

New terrorist operating methods would challenge the already-stretched French security systems.

And the Nice attack has demonstrated it. Will the next Islamic terror attack take France further to the brink of civil war? That must be a question worrying President Hollande and his security advisers.

As far as we are concerned, is home minister Rajnath Singh going to be in a state of denial having seen the ISIS grim handiwork in Holey Artisan bakery attack in Dhaka?

Does it matter what brand the Islamic terrorist sports? They have been changing their affiliations along with the uniform they wear.

And the next time they strike they may not be sporting romantic uniforms the terrorists in Kashmir usually wear in videos running viral on social media. And that does not make them less deadly.