A strong relationship with Russia is essential for India's foreign policy

Prime Minister Modi will be visiting Russia from June 1 to 3 as guest of honour at the St Petersburg Economic Forum at which India will be the guest country. Contrary to criticism in certain quarters, our relations with Russia have not been neglected since he took over. Defence ties have been carefully nurtured. Our economic relations remain feeble, though lately a welcome upswing in energy ties has occurred. Modi’s visit to St Petersburg for an economic event indicates a shared desire to strengthen the trade and investment pillar of our strategic ties.

Resurgence

The timing of the visit is also politically opportune as Russia has re-emerged forcefully on the international scene with its boldly conceived intervention in Syria. This has changed perceptions about Putin, now seen as a geo-strategic genius. Whereas former US president Obama denigrated Russia by calling it a mere regional power, now Moscow is viewed as holding the key to conflict-resolution in West Asia. Having established a crucial role for itself in this crisis-ridden region, Russia is now extending the geopolitical space it has gained by taking the lead in promoting a settlement in Afghanistan without US participation.

Russia explains this initiative as part of countering the threat of the Islamic State to its security through Afghanistan and Central Asia. One can surmise that this diplomatic resurgence of Russia, despite the economic, political and security pressures being exerted on it by the trans-Atlantic alliance, will arrest the process of reducing Russia to a junior partnership with a rising and geo-politically expansionist China, not only in Asia but wider afield as Chinese power grows.

Our relations with Russia have retained their fundamental stability though of late some misgivings have surfaced in both countries. Russia sees us as becoming too close strategically to the US, while its own relations with America have sharply deteriorated. Our growing purchases of defence equipment from the US are seen by Russia as cutting into an area that it has dominated historically. The China factor in our growing strategic ties with the US, even as Russia’s own strategic coordination with China has deepened because of the US factor, has resulted in gaps in our respective understanding of the strategic challenges that each country faces.

From India’s point of view, greater China-Russia strategic coordination has opened up more diplomatic space for China to harden its postures on our membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the designation of the Jaish-e-Mohamed chief Masood Azhar as an international terrorist by the relevant UN Security Council committee, as it puts constraints on the strength of Russian support to us in the concerned forums on both issues.

Reality

Besides Russia's stepped up sales of advanced weaponry to China, we cannot ignore its political and military overtures to Pakistan that include sale of offensive weapons, military exercises and according political legitimacy to the Taliban despite Pakistan’s manipulation of this force for its geo-strategic aims in Afghanistan that include limiting India’s role in that country.

Wisdom demands that the concerns that have surfaced in both countries should not be accorded exaggerated importance. Russia has its own concerns about China despite the two coming together on issues of shared interest. We too have concerns about some aspects of US polices towards Pakistan, and these will not change to our satisfaction. We are also aware that US-China ties are deeper than US-India ties and that Washington’s priority would be to manage China with economic pressure and avoid a military conflict with it. India has therefore to calibrate its relationship with the US in the light of these realities. Because Russia is viewed as a “tried and trusted” friend of India by the public, any wrinkles in the relationship gets greater than warranted attention in the media.

Autonomy

It is not as if difficulties in our relations with Russia have not existed in the past, only that a lid was kept on them officially. On the Russian side, India’s emergence as a power in its own right has probably not been sufficiently internalised in policy making in Moscow, and therefore the imperatives on the Indian side to broaden the range of its strategic ties are not adequately appreciated.

We need to discuss many issues with Russia beyond the economic. To the extent needed, we need to clear the air on some troubling Russian initiatives in our region. Trump’s election has created a great deal of uncertainty at the international level, with America’s allies, friends and adversaries unsure about the direction of US policies under him. His inclination to mend ties with Russia and, at the very least, work with it to destroy the Islamic State is being vociferously resisted domestically. Putin’s perspective on Trump’s America would be of great interest. The Trump-Xi summit, slated for April, will indicate where US-China ties are headed, which has implications for both India and Russia. How the Trump administration deals with Iran would also have implications for both. Putin’s views on Russia’s relationship with a troubled Europe and Turkey would interest us.

A strong relationship with Russia is essential for maintaining a balance in our foreign policy and preserving our strategic autonomy. Our aspiration to be a leading power requires both.

(Courtesy: Mail Today)

Also read - India must avoid falling into China's Tawang trap