What new faces are we expecting in Modi's cabinet reshuffle?

Confirming speculation doing the rounds of Delhi's power circuit, BJP president Amit Shah said about a likely cabinet reshuffle, "We will do it but the date has not been decided yet." When probed further, he said, "Do not think of me as being so naive that I will discuss cabinet reshuffle with the media."

This set the rumour mills in overdrive. Who will lose his job and why? Who is likely to be inducted into the Narendra Modi cabinet and what would the logic be behind his or her entry? Various permutations and combinations are also being bandied about.

The allowed strength of the cabinet is 81 and there are only 65 ministers in Modi’s council of ministers. So, theoretically, the prime minister can still induct 16 more ministers without dropping any of the old ones.

Modi last reorganised his team in November 2014, inducting Suresh Prabhu and Manohar Parrikar into the cabinet. There has now been a gap of 18 months and so, by all indications, this reshuffle would be a performance appraisal of the existing ministers.

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It is widely believed that Modi may go for a small or medium-sized change. Along with the cabinet reshuffle there is also talk about appointing BJP central office-bearers before the party's national executive meet scheduled from June 12-13 in Allahabad. Sources in the BJP have not specified any date but it is speculated that the changes in the party structure may take place in the first week of June.

Moreover, according to sources, there would be no changes in the top ministerial berths of finance, home, railways, defence, urban development, external affairs and information and broadcasting. Earlier there was talk that defence minister Parrikar may be returning to state politics as Goa would be going to the polls early next year.

It was speculated that finance minister Arun Jaitley would get defence and power minister Piyush Goyal finance. But those talks have now subsided, and transport minister Nitin Gadkari, who is considered a top performer in the government and is an RSS favourite, may also retain his ministry.

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Meanwhile two cabinet ministers, Najma Heptulla and Kalraj Mishra, have crossed Modi's declared ceiling of 75 years of age for those holding public office. Reports have said that Heptullah may be appointed governor. The implications of dropping Mishra, a Brahmin face from Uttar Pradesh, would have to be weighed, especially with Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due early next year. Brahmins account for over ten per cent of state’s population and have the power to tilt the balance in about 100 seats.

Minister of state for social justice and empowerment Vijay Sampla may also be dropped as he is now BJPs Punjab unit chief. With seven ministers from Bihar, there is speculation that two of them could be sent back to the state for party work. Health minister JP Nadda may go to Himachal Pradesh as the chief ministerial nominee. Minister of state for panchayati raj, Nihalchand, facing charges of sexual assault has become an embarrassment for the government, and may also be dropped.

While there is talk of bringing in more faces from Uttar Pradesh into the cabinet, the Modi cabinet already has many ministers representing the state. Of the 65 ministers in the Modi cabinet, 13, including the prime minister, represent the state.

There is also a vacancy created by Sarbananda Sonowal's appointment as Assam chief minister. He was the sports and youth affairs minister. So in his place, someone from Assam or the Northeast may be inducted. Minister of state for home affairs, Kiren Rijiju, may get elevated.

The party’s general secretary Bhupendra Yadav, too is in the race. Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath and Saharanpur MP Raghav Lakhanpal could find a place in the rejig. The prospective entry of BJP general secretary Ram Madhav into the Rajya Sabha has put him in the race for ministership. This may be a reward for his role played in the Jammu and Kashmir and Assam elections. Madhav also helped in organising overseas events of Prime Minister Modi.

Reports have said that performing ministers like Nirmala Sitharaman and Piyush Goyal could be promoted to a cabinet rank. Minister of state for information and broadcasting, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, may also get elevated.

So in the final analysis of the possibilities, this reshuffle would still be a minor one. Few of the non-performers may get dropped and some performers will certainly get rewarded. There would be some new entrants into the council of ministers, purely because of electoral considerations. Some are bound to get rewarded for their excellent work in the party.