Why Mulayam is the biggest riddle of Indian politics

The Samajwadi Party walked out of the Janata Parivar and decided to contest the Bihar elections on its own. The SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav said, "We will fight the (Bihar) election independently and with our full might". Even though the SP is a very marginal player in Bihar politics and has got just 0.55 per cent votes in the 2010 Assembly elections, this decision has stalled the proposed merger of six parties that has been announced in April. Irony is this was to be headed by Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Is this the first time that Mulayam has ditched an ally or friend? The answer is no. This is not the first time that Mulayam Singh Yadav has shown the true styles of a Pehlwan. He is known for ditching his friends and allies and has done it at regular intervals. He started as a small Yadav leader under stalwart Chaudhary Charan Singh, and then moved over to Chaudhary Devi Lal and then to V P Singh. He ditched VP Singh too to join Chandra Shekhar and then left the latter in lurch to join hands with Rajiv Gandhi. In 1993, he became CM with the help of the BSP, but when Kanshiram wanted to make Mayawati the CM, Mulayam's henchmen locked Mayawati in a room of the state guesthouse in Lucknow and manhandled her.

In 1999, he punctured Sonia Gandhi’s prime ministerial ambitions. Mulayam has promised his support to Sonia Gandhi but backed out within a few hours on the issue of her foreign origin. In 2002, the NDA's candidate for the president's post was APJ Abdul Kalam. Then Mulayam was part of the People's Front, which was a non-BJP and a non-Congress front. His front opposed Kalam and pitched the candidature of Captain Lakshmi Sahgal. But Mulayam sided with the NDA to support Kalam's candidature.

In 2008, Mulayam Singh deserted the Third Front parties and supported UPA government on the nuclear deal. In 2012, Mamata Banerjee was not in favour of Pranab Mukherjee's presidential candidature. Mulayam too expressed similar sentiments at first. After a meeting, both proposed names of Somnath Chatterjee, Manmohan Singh and APJ Abdul Kalam as their choice for the post of president. A day later, Mulayam had a meeting with Sonia Gandhi and he decided to support Pranab Mukherjee.

During the monsoon session of Parliament, a combative Opposition took on the government on the issues of Lalitgate and Vyapam scam. Opposition was adamant on seeking resignation of external affairs ministers Sushma Swaraj. Mulayam's Samajwadi Party had rejected the demand of resignation. Mulayam Singh even went to the extent of asking Congress to end its protest in Parliament, saying it couldn't "go on and on". This led Prime Minister Narendra Modi to hit out at Congress for "misusing" Parliament to stop the country's growth and hailed Mulayam Singh for "understanding this conspiracy" and working to end the logjam.

So, even after working towards bringing Janata Parivar together, he was hobnobbing with the BJP. But what has prompted him to do it this time round? Let's see the sequence of events. On 29th of August, Mulayam Singh Yadav held a surprise meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This meeting was to complain about the UP governor's "obstructionism". After that there were reports Mulayam Singh Yadav might stay away from Swabhiman Rally to be held at Patna's Gandhi Maidan on August 30. Finally, Mulayam sent his brother Shivpal Singh Yadav to take part in the rally on the request of Lalu Prasad. Ram Gopal Yadav reportedly met BJP chief Amit Shah on August 31. And on September 3, the SP has announced its divorce from Lalu and Nitish.

When the Janata Pariwar had been launched Mulayam was declared its head. However, when the seat-sharing formula announced in Bihar, the RJD and JDU were given 100 seats each, Congress was allotted 40, NCP 3 and SP none. When the SP leaders in Bihar launched protest against this seat distribution, it was allocated five seats. But that too failed to mollify the SP and they said that the way seats were allotted to them without consulting Mulayam Singh is not tolerable.

The SP has neither any MLA, nor MP from Bihar. However, the break-up may act as a morale booster for the National Democratic Alliance. The state unit of the SP had demanded at least 27 seats. Later, they agreed for 12 seats but finally they were given just five seats. So, the number of the seats, and the manner of their allocation, apparently, caused hurt and humiliation to the party leaders. Announcing the parting shot, Ram Gopal Yadav declared that the party would contest on its own and win much more seats than the five allocated to it by the alliance. The actual number of seats the SP is going to contest would be announced later. Though they didn't have any MLA in the last assembly but have got four and two seats in the two assembly elections held in 2005 respectively.

So, the official reason for the split was the humiliating offer to Samajwadi Party by its “Parivar”. And secondly, it was not even consulted by its allies over seat sharing negotiations. But unofficially, there are several theories that are currently being speculated in media about this so-called “U-turn” of Mulayam.  One such theory says that Mulayam wants to help his Samdhi Lalu Yadav by trying to inflict damage on Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. Another report says that Ram Gopal Yadav was asked by top BJP leaders in his meeting in Delhi, "Do you want to risk division of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh by going along with the Congress in Bihar?" And that led to partition. Yet another report claims that Mulayam was piqued by the Nitish-Lalu-Congress ties. Another reason cited for this split is the disproportionate assets (DA) case against him. The recent Yadav Singh DA case in Noida is one of the prime reasons why the SP has toned down its hostility towards the BJP, maintains a report. On August 6, Mulayam said that the CBI was misused by the previous governments at the Centre, and even Narendra Modi's government was doing the same. 

JDU president Sharad Yadav and and RJD chief Lalu Yadav are trying to retain Mulayam Singh Yadav in Bihar's grand alliance. Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav are exploring the option of allotting a few seats from the JDU quota to the Samajwadi Party as a peace formula. But will the flip-flop king of Indian politics Mulayam make another U-turn and go back to “Janata Parivar"? Mulayam was wrestler in his younger days and is said to adept a wrestling move, referred to as dhobi paat, in which the opponent is so badly pinned down that it is difficult for him to recover. Seems, master of dhobi paat Mulayam will remain a riddle in Indian politics.