Why Modi-Nawaz surprise diplomacy might just work
1. Kills media drama
"Surprise Diplomacy" is the new Modi-Nawaz strategy. India and Pakistan both need to pursue a dialogue process, which is away from the glare of the hyperbole "nationalistic" media of both the countries. Media houses in India and Pakistan cannot dictate diplomacy. The cancellation of talks between the national security advisors in August this year and the use of media to communicate back-fired for both the governments. But an undisclosed meeting between NSA Ajit Doval and Nasir Janjua in Bangkok paved the way for external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj's visit to Islamabad, which then resulted in an announcement of a comprehensive dialogue between the two countries.
2. Silences rightwing in India
With a short trip to Lahore, Narendra Modi has given Indian rightwing the message that he will follow former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's Pakistan policy and continue to engage with Pakistan. The aggressive policy pursued in one-and-a-half years of his tenure is slowly but surely being rewritten with the Vajpayee days. If India and Pakistan stand any chance of resolving bilateral disputes their best bet is the BJP and PML-Nawaz.
3. The "peace" lobby is clueless
The "peace" lobbies in Pakistan and India who on every given opportunity chant slogans of peace are clueless these days. The goalposts seem to be shifting and the lines of whom they consider "right" for peace are also blurring. Their favourites from the previous Indian government are now rather useless and it seems in the days to come burning candles will be the only task left.
4. Injects realism into India-Pak talks
"Talks is the only alternative" and Modi-Nawaz engagement says this loud and clear. Now that both the leaders have decided to talk, their respective teams will have to move with speed and hold deliberations on all the outstanding issues. This new sense of realism augurs well for future but care will have to be taken to ensure that both the parties remain vigilant against potential sabotage by parties whose vested interests are linked to continuation of enmity between two neighbours with a shared history that goes back to 5,000 years.
5. Shifts bilateral ties onto next
As what better can one ask for as a confidence building measure that the Indian PM Modi flew in a Pakistani chopper to Nawaz Sharif's residence as part of the visit that took everyone by surprise. It is believed that the two PMs used this opportunity to chart out a course of action to repair the bilateral ties via much talked about comprehensive dialogue process schedule to begin next year.
6. Promises more in runup to SAARC
Given the camaraderie and personal rapport of both PMs as evident from their relaxed body language, it is hoped that the melting of frost between India and Pakistan will push SAARC member countries to work towards greater economic integration. Not to forget that both the leaders are pro-business and in view of that "peace through economics" will govern the relations going forward.
7. Welcome move for the neighbours
There is a large section of silent majority in both the countries that favours any move towards peace and this newly found bonhomie between Nawaz and Modi is exactly what will push this silent majority to become vocal. Politicians, it is well known, best understand the power of "numbers" and peace dividends of any such engagement has a potential to make this silent majority rally behind their respective leaders.
8. Kills the atmosphere of discords
Understood that India and Pakistan can't madly love each other, but this thaw in the relationship will kill the atmosphere of discord. The tension which in the past has often resulted in cross fire skirmishes on the Line of Control and the Working Boundary between the two countries causing civilian casualties. With the temperatures cooling down the people with families on both sides of the divide would like to see an ease in the stringent visa policy.
9. The PM benefit
It is no rocket science to conclude that moves by both the leaders have caught everyone off-guard. It has also established both leaders as pragmatists who mean business and are willing to walk an extra mile. What happens from hereon will depend on the events that will unfold over weeks and months to come, but there is no denying the fact that it has also strengthened both leaders in the eyes of their people. While Modi's move reinforces his image of a man with a mission; Nawaz would like to project himself as the only one capable of delivering peace with India and also the man who can help strengthen democracy in Pakistan.
10. Hope for some small achievements in bilateral areas
It is clear that path of Modi and Sharif is paved with thorns and stones and they have no option but to walk on it while exercising extreme care and caution. In order to keep the hope, that both have managed to generate, alive; Modi and Nawaz will have to focus their short-term energies on the low hanging fruits first while keeping their eyes on the long term goals. Destination to peace will have to be broken down into various short term journeys and each journey will have its own set of challenges that both PMs will have to overcome, jointly and severally.