How exactly will Modi's UK visit be judged?
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his UK counterpart David Cameron in London on Thursday, it is inevitable that Modi's admirers and detractors at home and major world powers will be watching his maiden visit to the UK which comes close on the heels of the electoral drubbing his party got in Bihar. This is despite the fact that the UK has become an inconsequential power over the years.
His UK visit would be judged from two perspectives broadly: (1) What he says and does, a kind of "glib versus substantive" yardstick; and (2) How it helps India economically and strategically, a kind of "optics versus concrete deliverables" debate.
On the first point, the Congress party will be hoping that he commits the same mistake again and says something politically charged as he has done very often during his numerous foreign trips. Modi gets many opportunities for making politically-loaded remarks, particularly his upcoming magnum opus at London’s Wembley stadium on November 13 when he addresses a whopping crowd of 60,000 people, three times more than the crowd at Madison Square Garden in the US last year.
Modi's Wembley address will be a very important barometer to judge whether he has learnt his lessons and has become more restrained or whether he has become more aggressive.
In any case, despite the fact that 60,000 people have signed up to attend the Wembley event, it is quite clear that the Modi magic is on the wane. Just before his meeting with Cameron at 10 Downing Street on November 12, scores of protesters converged at the venue with #ModiNotWelcome banners and signboards. Besides, more than 200 writers, including Salman Rushdie, have urged Cameron to raise issues of intolerance and freedom of expression issues with Modi.
Chances are that Cameron won't oblige the writers as he won’t like to harm his country's business prospects with India by doing that.
This brings us to the second point – whether Modi’s UK visit will be high on optics and big-ticket announcements and low on actual deliverables.
Indian media is full of reports that business deals worth over $15 billion are going to be signed. PM Modi will have to be sensitised to the bottom line from the perspective of the common man in India as to who benefits more from these deals – India or the UK?
In any case, the UK is one country which has increasingly become inconsequential over the years in global affairs, perhaps the only P5 country to have this dubious fate. The UK has to blame itself for this. It has made itself a satellite of the United States on foreign policy issues. On military and trade matters, the UK policies are more or less decided by NATO and EU respectively.
The Britishers, who were so influential and powerful during the colonial era that the sun never set on the British empire, are now so shrivelled in power and influence that they have become lackeys to the US, NATO and EU without any independent policy of their own. Why should the world woo London then?
It is not surprising that the UK is perhaps the only “major” friendly country in the world with which India does not have a strategic partnership. While Cameron has visited India thrice in past couple of years (not counting India visits by his predecessors), this is the first prime ministerial bilateral visit from India to the UK since 2006.