Military view of Obama's India visit

The big ticket item of the high profile US Presidential visit to New Delhi was the "nuclear deal" with the sticky issues concerning liability and monitoring. This however has been deftly handled by PM Modi. The next big items were economy and security. They are interlinked as each drives the other.

However, the specifics of security from a military angle need deeper insight. The challenges in the strategic big picture revolve around modernisation of India’s military, including indigenisation "Make in India", defeating global terror – including regional terror – and freedom of the seas. Of course, subsets of this would extend to specific aspects such as interoperability and disaster management.

Scrutiny

The starting point in relation to military security is the overall strategic message flowing from the visit, which must be undergoing intense scrutiny by both China and Pakistan. Although the terms "body language" and "optics" are under ridicule on social media, the message of the move towards a more transformational relationship, which encompasses all hues of the strategic spectrum, should not be lost.

That India is a crucial part of the "rebalancing and pivot to Asia" game is clear. That does not necessarily mean an alliance against China but a more transparent consultation on how to balance China’s robust ambitions in Asia. One of the most significant aspects of this is the freedom of the seas. China seeks domination over the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) from West Asia to its eastern seaboard, the choke points around Sri Lanka and Malacca, and the areas over which it lays claim in the oceans.

China’s sea power is however, comparatively weak in the face of the navies of the US, Australia, Japan and their allies. This is a crucial area in the containment of China who has been attempting to robustly extend its domination to the claim areas and wrest advantage in the balance of power along the littoral areas of the SLOCs, through its strategy of the Maritime Silk Route. It would not be premature to surmise that the various facets of modernisation of the Indian Navy, including sharing of aircraft carrier technology and the provisioning of weapon systems under the Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI) is a step towards greater future synchronisation of naval power.

This includes promises of 120mm naval guns for the next generation vessels, multirole helicopter MH60-R and Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS). It will extend to the sharing of maritime intelligence and subsequently to data and communication security. This message is both appropriate and good for India.

Terror

Before discussing the surface-related aspects, the issue of global and regional terror threats needs examination. The joint statement alludes to greater exchange of intelligence and targeting of three entities – the Haqqani network, D-Company and the JuD; all connected to Pakistan, with the scope of a much larger global footprint.

While this is a quasi-military area it does translate into effect in relation to infiltration into J&K and in some cases terror networks in the hinterland which too concern the military. The promise of high end sensors for counter-infiltration needs early fructification because in spite of all that the army has achieved on its counter-infiltration grid attempts at infiltration continue unabated.

The army has been unable to move to the next generation of technology in surveillance and networking, despite test beds created in some LoC formations. The issue of terror in J&K revolves around the ability to effectively marginalise infiltration and reduce terrorist strength in the hinterland. The necessity of technology such as deep mining of data through algorithms to predict terror attacks is one of the modern enablers in counterterrorism. This will also extend pro-active security to our establishments in Afghanistan.

On the land-based front, there are key areas in which the Indian Army remains handicapped. Under DTTI, there is sufficient scope to more proactively engage the US for assistance in the field of artillery and battlefield transparency. There should be a parallel process to see how the ongoing digitisation, long delayed, can be energised with US assistance.

The M777 howitzer remains an option for acquisition to feed the starved artillery, even as the indigenous route is being attempted. With Ashton Carter (President Obama’s nominee for defence secretary) the DTTI is likely to see more energy and proactivity – a careful prioritisation is the pre-requisite. It should include the rotary wing resources, as not much has been heard on the impending Chinook and Apache deals for the air force. The Apache will also remain an option for the army for its proposed offensive rotary wing support.

Trust

After the inability of the DRDO’s Nag project to deliver and the Milan and Fagot Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) systems coming into antiquity there is a level of desperation in the army to get its next generation of ATGMs, and get them quickly. The Javelin next-generation ATGM seems a natural and co-production is something to be looked at. Future technology in terms of anti-missile systems and how these could be meshed with the DRDO’s ongoing efforts can also be examined.

However, much would depend on the further outcome of the deliberations of the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), the outcome of which are as yet unknown because high end technology would involve sharing protocols which India is wary of. The question anyone will ask is how the required trust can be achieved and can the visible optics of emerging trust, translate into such protocols.

This commentary is just the tip of the iceberg; the scope of defence cooperation with the world’s leading nation in the field of technology is limitless. Ultimately, it is trust which will dictate the discourse. That seems to be emerging in plenty from the Obama-Modi bonhomie. Without the strangulating controls of yesteryears, it is for the military and bureaucracy to now get their act together.