Mehbooba’s last gamble: Why the BJP-PDP alliance is doomed

It's not nice to say I told you so. But I did.

This is what I wrote here on January 12, 2016, about the BJP-PDP alliance in Jammu & Kashmir in my piece Mehbooba Mufti's divorce with BJP may work well for Modi:

"Mehbooba is more outspoken than her late father. She is also more sympathetic to the Hurriyat separatists. And she is as mercurial as the Mufti was equable. After initial misgivings, the Mufti had developed a rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even praising him as a strong leader who was likely to be PM for ten years. Will Mehbooba be able to keep the PDP-BJP alliance on an even keel or will her strong separatist views cause a rift with the BJP? Mehbooba is unlikely to break the alliance just yet - it would cast a shadow over her father's decision to ally with the BJP. In the long term, however, a Mehbooba-led PDP-BJP government is unlikely to overcome its constituent parties' inherent ideological contradictions. A political divorce may therefore not be such a bad thing for the BJP. It could lose a state but win a nation."

What next? Mehbooba suddenly finds herself in a corner. Ten weeks after her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed died, Mehbooba is about to lose her high-stakes poker game with the BJP.

Mehbooba's options are limited. The first is to give up her laundry list of demands and form a government based on the previous "agenda for alliance". Considering that Mehbooba has sharply criticised non-implementation of the agenda, it will represent a humiliating climbdown for her.

Also read - How an unpopular BJP will cost Mehbooba Mufti her CM dream

Mehbooba's second option is to dilute some of her demands - as she has already shown signs of doing - and keep channels of communication with the BJP leadership open. Her meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, scheduled for last Friday, did not take place. Mehbooba left for Srinagar in a huff. She is now back in Delhi in the hope that a meeting with the PM can be arranged.

Her third option is the most fraught: fresh Assembly elections. It is a prospect that unnerves Mehbooba - and for good reason.

The PDP's alliance with the BJP has alienated the party's core supporters bred on soft separatism. The low turnout at the Mufti's funeral in January shocked Mehbooba and senior PDP leaders. It reflected - more than any opinion poll could - the erosion of support for the PDP in the Kashmir Valley.

A similar predicament awaits the BJP. Its supporters in Jammu are disillusioned with the party's dalliance with the PDP which they regard as a pro-Pakistan, pro-Hurriyat party.

A fresh election today could well favour the Abdullahs' National Conference. Former chief minister Omar Abdullah is well aware of this: he has been demanding that the PDP-BJP alliance either form the government or dissolve the assembly and call for a mid-term poll.

Abdullah met the governor of J&K on March 21 to discuss the ongoing crisis in government formation.

Also read - Has BJP failed to honour Mufti Mohammad Sayeed?

The NC won just 15 seats in the December 2014 Assembly election following six years of indifferent governance. But with both the PDP and BJP diluting their appeal in their respective vote catchment areas, the NC could benefit the most from a fresh election.

In the 87-member J&K Assembly, the PDP currently has 27 MLAs, the BJP has 25, the NC 15, the Congress 12 and seven Independents. One seat is vacant following the Mufti's death.

A resolution to the impasse must be found before April 8 when the Assembly will complete six months without meeting at least once as the Constitution requires. The Assembly is presently in "suspended animation".

Development has been the first casualty. The promised flood relief package has still not reached J&K. Disaffection is rife. New power projects remain stuck. The unintended beneficiary in any future election will be the NC and, to an extent, the Congress. Public memory is short. The legacy of six years of the NC's relatively inept governance may be forgotten if J&K goes to the polls.

It is Mehbooba's fear of facing the electorate today which could yet bind the PDP and BJP together for a while longer in their unhappy marriage of convenience.