Why economic blockade in Manipur gives Ibobi Singh hope

Beneath the largely expressionless face of Manipur chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh is a smiling man hoping to come back to power for the fourth time. For the past 15 years, Ibobi Singh has been a much-criticised leader in Manipur politics, yet stomping back to power every time.

This time too he is likely to repeat the accomplishment - riding high on the hills and plains divide. While the plains account for 40 seats in the state Assembly, the hills have 20.

The 15 years of Ibobi Singh as CM have been riddled with major incidents of insurgency, a record number of extra-judicial killings and economic blockades. Yet another blockade going on for the past three months has come to his rescue just ahead of the elections.

On Monday, Manipur entered the 105th day of the economic blockade. Since November 1, the United Naga Council (UNC) - an umbrella organisation of Naga civil society organisations - has imposed a blockade on NH-2 (Imphal-Dimapur) and NH-37 (Imphal-Jiribam) highways that serve as lifelines for the landlocked Manipur, after the state government decided to bifurcate Naga-dominated areas and create seven new districts. And it is this ongoing logjam that Ibobi is pinning his hopes on for a fourth term.

A government, which till four months back was worrying over the anti-incumbency factor, suddenly found a new lease of life once the blockade was announced by the UNC. For he knows well that it's the blockade and the hardships it causes that will remain fresh in voters' mind more than his “misrule”.

Political observers say the shrewd politician in Ibobi Singh knows the longer the blockade continues, the better are his chances of winning the elections. This has happened in the past, too. Singh returned to power by winning a record 42 seats (out of 60) in 2012 following a 120-day economic blockade in 2011.

That’s precisely the reason why he says “bandh and blockades are normal in Manipur, nothing to worry”.

It isn't difficult to read why the Congress is not too keen to see the blockade coming to an end. The latest round of tripartite talks over the blockade among the state, Centre and the UNC came to an inconclusive end following an alleged attempt by Ibobi to derail it.

According to the UNC, the three parties - Centre, state and UNC - had agreed that none of them would go to the press on sensitive matters discussed in the talks, but Ibobi Singh violated the terms of the agreement by mentioning in the media that the “blockade will be lifted on Tuesday and they will unconditionally release two UNC leaders”.

Many say the blockade, though called by the UNC, is actually working to the CM’s advantage. While announcing the new districts, Ibobi Singh knew what was coming. He also anticipated it well that the UNC, which was opposed to the bifurcation of Naga-dominated areas, will retaliate with a blockade. What better time than elections?

Also, with the creation of the new districts, Ibobi Singh has managed to divide the “tribal unity” and appease the earlier unhappy Kukis, who are no longer against the government after their long-time demand of Sadar Hills district was granted.

The UNC has been vehemently opposing the demand of Kuki and Meitei groups for district status for Sadar Hills and Jiribam sub-divisions. While the Meiteis say it is an administrative necessity, the Nagas believe the creation of Jiribam district will make some Naga villages fall under the jurisdiction of the majority Meiteis, which in turn would affect the idea of greater Nagaland.

But Ibobi Singh knew that if he has to stay in power, he has to “divide” the tribal population - Nagas, Kukis and Zomis - which united against him after the introduction of the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reforms Bill in 2015.

Following the introduction of three bills in 2015 - the Protection of Manipur People Bill, 2015, Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reforms Bill, 2015, and Manipur Shops and Establishments Bill, 2015 - there was a huge uproar.

The tribal population had taken exception to the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reforms Bill, according to which all land would come under the Manipur government and sale (of land) to outsiders will become difficult.

The tribal population was angry over the bill and believed it was an attempt by the Meitei-dominated government to grab tribal land (tribal land is protected by the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution).

Even though Ibobi Singh waxed eloquent on administrative efficiency as the reason for creation of the new districts, the politics of elections behind the decision was difficult to hide. It was perhaps his last-ditch effort to re-establish his credibility among the Kukis and Meiteis.

The Nagas, on the other hand, literally walked into Ibobi’s trap and can now do little to call off the blockade.  The UNC, which has also by now come to be known as the “frontal organisation” of the NSCN (I-M), is crying foul over Ibobi’s alleged betrayal.What initially looked like a smart move to cut supply of essential goods - by blocking the two highways - to the valley, seems to have boomeranged.

While the Ibobi government has been blaming the Nagas for the unrest, it has also accused the Centre of “not taking action” to help restore order in the state. According to him, since the central government is in peace talks with the NSCN (I-M), it can easily put pressure on the UNC to call off the blockade and end the people’s suffering.

The Centre, which is led by the BJP, is in an equally precarious situation. With little understanding of the ethnic scenario and the conflict situation in Manipur, the BJP initially thought it will be an easy walk inside Manipur, piggybacking on the Naga issue.

In its haste to achieve a Congress-mukt Bharat, the BJP first flashed “a breakthrough in peace talks with Nagas” as one of its major achievements. However, the BJP functionaries are now wary of the situation it has created.

“It was the Congress which started the talks with the Nagas. Our party has only tried to bring the talks to a logical conclusion. Now Ibobi Singh is trying to put us in the corner on the Naga Accord because the framework agreement is still not out in the open. The Congress has trapped us on it; it has created a problem for us. Still, this issue can’t save the Congress government,” BJP state president Kshetrimayum Bhabananda Singh was quoted as saying by Wire.in.

He also admitted that the ongoing blockade and demonetisation did break the momentum of the party in the state.

While the BJP had a cakewalk in Assam mainly on the issue of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, in Manipur it is desperately trying to make the anti-incumbency factor work against the Congress.

The saffron party, led by Northeast Democratic Alliance (a coalition of BJP and regional parties) convener Himanta Biswa Sarma, has been trying to raise the issue of illegal immigrants in Manipur too, but with little success. The BJP for now is concentrating on the anti-incumbency factor.

The BJP almost managed a masterstroke as it created the NEDA (which has the Naga People’s Front and other regional parties as its members). Although the BJP’s chief import from Congress, Sarma, did play a crucial role in toppling the Congress government in Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur seems slightly tougher even for a canny negotiator like him.

For a state which has always been wary of outsiders and battling a huge internal ethnic conflict, Sarma could be from the North-East but very much an outsider in Manipur at the end of the day.

Nevertheless, the BJP remains hopeful. Although it is fighting it alone (contrary to popular expectations that the party will form an alliance with the NPF in Naga-dominated areas), it is not ruling out a post-poll alliance.

It has been accusing the chief minister for not being able to open NH-2 or the Imphal-Dimapur highway despite paramilitary troops pressed by the Centre, while Ibobi Singh is saying the BJP-led Centre is deliberately not taking action against the UNC.

Amid all the politics, it's the voters in Manipur who are trapped in a strange situation. And with the UNC prolonging the blockade it only seems to be helping the poll prospects of the Congress and Ibobi Singh.

Also read: How Ibobi Singh baited a magazine reporter to derail crucial Manipur talks