Why Manipur looks to vote Ibobi Singh for fourth time

It is for the first time in its history that the state Assembly elections in Manipur are being followed so keenly by the mainstream media, even though coverage has mostly been overshadowed by the massive hype over the battle in Uttar Pradesh, for reasons geographical or otherwise.

Thus often ignored, why is there such eager anticipation about the outcome of this election in Manipur which, to my mind, still occupies little space in the consciousness of the mainland.

The single biggest reason perhaps is the emergence of the BJP as a counter force to 15 years of Congress rule in the state. The fact that the state has now got a strong political alternative makes all the difference.

Ever since Narendra Modi’s push in the North East to demolish the long-held Congress bastions in the region, the BJP has gone full throttle to wrest control of the states at any cost.

The success in Assam and the somewhat overnight change in Arunachal Pradesh only gave it more steam, with senior leaders like Ram Madhav camping in Manipur for months to replicate the formula again.

With barely any base in Manipur, the party has adopted the same strategy here - depending on defections from the Congress to build its team.

But the Congress in Manipur is not quite the same as the Congress of Rahul Gandhi. With the master craftsman that Ibobi Singh is, the party still remains a force to reckon with that could well hault the BJP juggernaut.

What has given the Congress an upper hand, as predicted by the India Today-My Axis Exit poll, is its grip over the majority Meitei community in the valley. Last year, just as the poll bugle had been sounded, Singh’s masterstroke to create seven new districts changed the equation for his party.

In order to consolidate its Meitei vote share, the Ibobi government divided the hill districts mostly dominated by the Naga and Kuki tribes to create new ones. The Nagas immediately rose up in arms against the state government, imposing an indefinite blockade on the Imphal valley which forms nearly 60 per cent of the state's population.

The blockade, which is in its fifth month now, has undoubtedly been the single biggest factor in these polls with both the BJP and Congress using it to suit their agenda. While the BJP has blamed Singh for failing to end the impasse, the Congress had pushed the ball in the Centre’s court given that it is holding peace talks with Naga rebel group NSCN (IM) whose frontal organisation, the United Naga Council (as alleged by the Congress), is holding the blockade.

Interestingly, using this blockade Singh has somewhat been able to thwart the anti-incumbency in the state. In January last year, when I was covering the Manipur earthquake, the anti-Congress sentiment seemed quite prevalent, given that the party had been in power for three successive terms. People seemed hungry for change.

But cut to December 2016, things had taken a full churn with many blaming the Centre for the impasse. A section also feels that PM Modi’s statement during a campaign rally in Imphal that if the BJP came to power, they would get the blockade lifted in two days had an adverse impact on BJP’s fortunes.

Many saw it as the BJP-led Centre’s “ploy” to let the impasse continue so that the valley erupted in protest against the state administration. Exactly what the Ibobi camp had hoped for, to channelise the valley’s anger due to the painful economic blockade against the Centre.

To add to the BJP’s woes are factors like lack of leadership, squabble among top state leaders like Biren Singh and Th Chaoba and the absence of a chief ministerial face.

Of the 60 seats in the Manipur Assembly, 40 are in the valley while the rest in the hills. The Congress hopes to come close to the majority mark in the valley itself, banking on the Meitei votebank.

For the remaining 20 hill seats, it feels it can pick up around 4-5 due to vote division among the opposition. While the Naga People’s Front (NPF) may be a constituent of the NDA, in Manipur the BJP and NPF are fighting separately as the later is weary of antagonising the Meiteis by siding with a Naga party (NPF supports the Naga aspiration for a Greater Nagaland along with the UNC).

Sources close to chief minister Singh say Congress is expecting a tally between 30-35 seats while the CM himself has pegged it at 40. The BJP on the other hand hopes that the anti-incumbency factor will push it to double digit (BJP did not win any seat in the last Assembly polls in 2012, but won two in subsequent bypolls).

The Congress itself thinks BJP may reach up to 15 seats while the NPF may pick five. There are a few smaller regional players too, but they generally tend to gravitate towards the two big sharks, whoever ends up getting the numbers.

For a complex state like Manipur, which is plagued by insurgency and fissures between various tribes and ethnic groups, there are multiple underlying factors that determine how people vote.

Considering all of that and the current mood on the ground, it would be safe to say that at a macro-level, the Congress clearly has an edge.  

Also read: Why economic blockade in Manipur gives Ibobi Singh hope