Why KM Mani is likely to quit UDF

Just as the Congress unit in Kerala was licking its wounds and trying to settle leadership questions after its massive loss at the hands of the LDF, it got a fresh jolt from its ally, the Kerala Congress (M).

KC(M) leader KM Mani is likely to quit the UDF. Mani was forced to resign as finance minister in the last government following bribery allegations, and is miffed that the UDF did not support him when he was in the need of it.

A couple of events in the last month might have expedited this crisis.

The major one was the change of guard in the Congress. Oommen Chandy, the outgoing chief minister, made way for Ramesh Chennithala to be elected as the leader of Opposition.

Also read: Is Ramesh Chennithala prepared to lead Congress in Kerala?

Though it was expected that Chandy would carry on as the UDF chairman, he was adamant that he wouldn't, since he had to accept responsibility for the massive defeat.

This decision, which was finalised in Delhi on July 7, was not conveyed back to Mani after the constituents of the UDF including the Muslim League had collectively demanded that Chandy remain the chairman.

One reason for this demand was that many among the UDF constituents had reservations about the leadership of Chennithala. Chandy, despite having his way with the constituents most of the time, had this knack of carrying everyone along through the years.

Mani is quite clear that he cannot accept the leadership of Chennithala. It is the perceived dual standards of Chennithala as home minister in dealing with similar allegations against Mani and Congress minister K Babu that has been one of the causes of the KC(M)'s annoyance.

Mani also raised objection to Chandy and Chennithala attending the wedding of liquor contractor Biju Ramesh's son as he was the one who precipitated the crisis for Mani with his bar bribery allegations. However, Chandy and Chennithala could not be blamed for this as they attended the wedding on behalf of the bride's father who happened to be their ex-Cabinet colleague, Adoor Prakash.

Sources close to Mani confirm that he has been on the lookout for alibis to justify walking out of the alliance.

Mani's toughest challenge was to convince the PJ Joseph faction in his party to agree to this.

The KC(M) steering committee meeting held recently couldn't reach a consensus on the issue owing to Joseph's reservations. A two-day camp, to be held on August 6 and 7 at Charalkunnu, a hill station in Pathanamthitta, was announced by the KC(M) to settle it.

On July 31, Mani called a meeting of his MLAs, MPs and other top leaders of his party to set the agenda for the Charalkuunu camp. By then, Mani had prevailed upon Joseph to defer to the party line.

The Joseph faction in the party has weakened considerably after some of his loyalists under the leadership of Francis George walked out of the party prior to the Assembly elections earlier this year to tie up with the LDF. And not being in the pink of health with age not being on his side further handicaps Joseph.

However, as things stand, all that the Joseph faction has agreed to is to detach the party from the UDF and sit as a separate bloc in the Assembly.

And that is all what Mani requires at the moment as he attempts to make himself and his party relevant in the coming months.

A source close to Joseph reveals that he has only agreed to this arrangement to be able to negotiate his way back to the UDF on his terms in time for the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

As always, the Congress was late to react to Mani's game plan. Congress leaders were confident that what was unfolding was just a bargaining tactic by the KC(M) to try and redeem its image in the eyes of the public by repeating the claim that there was some sort of conspiracy against Mani and that he was being singled out among all the ministers who faced corruption charges.

Chandy held a closed-door meeting at Mani's residence in Pala to assuage him on Sunday (July 31), which didn't yield anything. For some reason, the Congress did not actively engage Joseph as it had successfully done in the run-up to Mani's resignation last November.

With the Congress leaders not being able to break the deadlock, the UDF tasked Muslim League's PK Kunjalikkutty to talk to Mani.

But Mani was one step ahead. With some consensus emerging in his party after a lot of effort, he promptly checked into a popular retreat centre at Kottayam and now will be available only on Friday (August 5). In the meanwhile, a gag order has been imposed on the KC(M) leaders including spokespersons till the conclusion of the Charalkunnu camp.

Congress leaders are hoping against hope that they will be able to mollify Mani on this all-important Friday, a day before the KC(M) camp at Charalkunnu is scheduled to begin. To complicate matters, the Congress central leadership has summoned Chandy, Chennithala and VM Sudheeran to Delhi on Thursday (August 4).

Mani seems to have a plan though; a five-year plan.

PC Thomas, former minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and a five-time MP, and now part of the NDA in Kerala, has revealed that he had mediated between the BJP and the KC(M)'s Jose K Mani in Delhi on January 21 this year. The way Thomas backed out of a contest with Mani in Pala at the last minute as the NDA candidate in the Assembly elections has also to be read in this context.

A source close to Thomas reveals that he has also informally mediated between Mani and the Kerala unit of the BJP in recent weeks. Thomas, who had managed to wrest the official party name and symbol of Kerala Congress through the Election Commission not long ago, admits that he fancies getting all the Kerala Congress factions together in the NDA fold.

This might still be a stretch at the moment as the voters of Kerala Congress parties vary greatly from that of the BJP. But if a mainstream party like the KC(M) joins the NDA, there would be a massive churning and polarisation in Kerala. The NDA could then easily go past its 15 per cent vote share that it got in the last Assembly elections.

Mani might still be hopeful of getting a final shot at his long cherished chief minister's chair in 2021 at the age of 88.

He is remarkably fit for his age today. He may be concerned whether his constituents, mostly Syrian Christians of central Kerala, would continue to vote for him, but he hopes to leverage something from the Central government for the rubber planters and the agricultural sector to hold on to most of these vote banks.

Mani's calculations are based on the assumption that the BJP would come back to power at the Centre in 2019. He also hopes to take care of succession battles in his party by getting his son Jose K Mani to be a Central minister.

It remains to be seen if the KC(M) indeed decides to quit the UDF and sit as a separate bloc in the Assembly after the Charalkunnu camp. If so, Kerala politics will never be the same again.