United Opposition: Are we going to see a replay of 1996 in 2019 Lok Sabha polls?
The summer of 2018 has brought back the memories of that searing hot May of 1996. Back in that year, the United Front government led by the-then Karnataka CM, HD Deve Gowda, had replaced Atal Bihari Vajpayee's BJP government at the Centre, with outside support from the Congress. This May, it was HD Kumaraswamy's turn to capture the hotseat in Karnataka, again with Congress support.
The political drama that played out in Karnataka has made two things clear. Firstly, the BJP's march into the south of Vindhyas has been thwarted for now. Secondly, it also showed that the formidable Modi-Shah juggernaut can be stopped, but only if the Opposition parties are willing to come together, putting aside differences and work as one.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi may have been relishing the outcome in Karnataka, but his lack of initiative in stitching up a pre-poll alliance with the JD(S) has exposed his political immaturity. Added to that, in the run-up to the elections, the Congress president kept accusing the JD(S) of being the B team of BJP.
To her credit, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, has already called for a pre-poll tie-up of all Opposition (read regional) parties to stall the BJP in 2019. The usually reticent Left too has joined in.
So is Karnataka a sign of the things to come? Are we going to see a replay of 1996 in 2019? The year 1996 though brought with it days of political uncertainty, days of governments with limited mandate and shrinking terms. The united Opposition and each of its constituents will do good to take into consideration these aspects. Because if it fails to get united, the Modi wave, in all likelihood, will end up sweeping the elections in 2019.
But do you think a united Opposition look like? Will the Congress be a part of it? Or will it extend outside support? In 1996, the Congress and some Left parties had extended outside support to the United Front government. But the "outside" support from Congress was uncertain from the very beginning. The tension led to then PM Deve Gowda stepping down as PM within 10 months of taking charge. Then came IK Gujral. But almost 11 months after that, the Congress withdrew support when its demand for sacking DMK ministers was rejected. The demand came after a Jain Commission report on the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi had held that the DMK had tacitly supported the LTTE.
So after being in power for just over 20 months the United Front experiment failed.
This was not the first instance, in 1979 Chaudhary Charan Singh banked on the Congress for support to form a new government. It lasted around five-and-a-half months. Then the Chandrasekhar-led government in 1990 survived for about seven months, courtesy "outside" support from the Congress.
However, the situation then and now is very different. Older ideas and leaders have largely been replaced. Moreover, the non-Congress Opposition parties have grown by leaps and bounds both in stature and seats. They would be keenly watching the Congress in Karnataka.
Karnataka is much more than a test for the Congress ahead of the real battle in 2019. It will also decide if the united Opposition still considers the grand old party trustworthy. And make no mistakes, it will be a combination of strong regional leaders. And then there are the voters — they would be watching too — if the Congress slips up, voters would see the Karnataka experiment as nothing more than an opportunistic ploy to grab power.
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