Karnataka exit poll results: How JD(S) could lose and still win
Karnataka Assembly elections 2018, the voting for which took place today (May 12) and the results are scheduled to come on May 15, is proving to be a riddle wrapped in a mystery.
Most poll pundits have been predicting a hung Assembly for long. But if one goes by the exit poll results conducted by the various TV channels, then it can be safely concluded that these exit polls themselves are a hung house.
We have six different exit polls and projections of each of these starkly vary. First sample the projections of the following six exit polls.
Times Now-VMR
Congress: 90-103
BJP: 80-93
JD(S): 31-39
ABP and C-Voter
Congress: 87-99
BJP: 97-109
JD(S): 21-30
Others: 1-8
Republic TV-Jan ki Baat
Congress: 73-82
BJP: 95-114
JD(S): 32-43
Others: 2-3
News X-CNS
Congress: 72-78
BJP: 102-110
JD(S): 35-39
Others: 3-4
India Today-Axis
Congress: 106-118
BJP: 79-92
JD(S): 22-30
NDTV
Congress: 72-78
BJP: 102-110
JD(S): 35-39
Others: 3-5
Four of these exit polls – ABP and C-Voter, Republic TV- Jan Ki Baat, News X- CNS and NDTV – put the BJP in the lead, followed by the Congress and the JD(S). Only two — TimesNow and India Today — have projected the Congress as the largest party, followed by BJP and JD(S), in that order.
All exit polls are unanimous only on one point – that the JD(S) is projected to finish last in this three-horse race. As per the exit polls’ JD(S) specific projections, the regional party’s highest seat share is 43 (Republic TV) and the lowest is mere 21 (ABP) in the 224-member house for which the voting was held on 222 seats.
Another interesting point is that only one exit poll (India Today) gives the Congress the possibility of forming the government on its own if its upper end of the projection for the party (118) were to come true.
As for the BJP, only one channel's upper limit projections point to the possibility of crossing the magic figure of 113 for the Karnataka Assembly – Republic TV (114). However, three other channels' upper end projections for the BJP puts the saffron party very close to the finish line — ABP (109), News X (110) and NDTV (110).
The exit poll by India Today-Axis My India predicts that Congress will get well over 105 seats and is poised to receive 39 per cent of votes, followed by BJP (35 per cent) and JD(S) (17 per cent). If this projection were to be true, then the Congress' vote share stands to be decreased by 2 per cent, while BJP's is poised to be increased by 2 per cent and JD(S)'s vote share to be decreased by 3 per cent.
At the time of writing this, the exit poll results of Chanakya, came up. Chanakya gives a clear majority to the BJP with 120 seats. Here are Chanakya's projections:
If the exit polls’ projection of a close fight between the BJP and the Congress comes true, the likely scenario will be of a hung house. In that eventuality, the Janata Dal-Secular would become the kingmaker. In such a scenario, the JD(S) would emerge as the biggest beneficiary as it will inevitably dictate its terms to the two big players – Congress and BJP—and make no mistake about it, the regional party will eke out the post of deputy chief minister and other plum portfolios.
Over to May 15, the counting day.