Karnataka elections: JD(S) proves BJP and Congress cannot afford to write off regional players
As the BJP looks set to ride to victory in the 22nd state in the country and the Congress finds itself losing its last cash-rich bastion of Karnataka, another clear message has emerged – the national parties cannot afford to write off the local player.
Trends so far suggest that the BJP is likely to win 102 seats, the Congress 70, and the Janata Dal (Secular) around 40 seats. The 40 seats that would have made all the difference, had the Congress joined hands with the JD(S) before the elections.
Despite all the Delhi heavyweights – Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP chief Amit Shah, Congress president Rahul Gandhi – camping in Karnataka, the JD(S) has held onto its core constituency of Vokkaliga voters, and increased its share of Dalit votes too.
The Congress had pinned all its hopes on the incumbent chief minister Siddaramaiah, who had joined the party after rebelling from the JD(S) in 2006. Siddaramaiah tried his AHINDA (Alpasankhyataru Hindulidavaru Mattu Dalitaru) combination to win over the lower caste, backward castes, tribals and Muslim votes, but that ploy doesn't seem to have worked.
With Lingayats favouring the BJP, which had BS Yeddyurappa, a leader from the caste group, as its CM candidate, the JD(S) and the Congress had been fighting for the same voter demographic. The regional party has held onto its Vokkaliga vote-bank – the caste to which president HD Deve Gowda belongs – while a large number of Dalits too seem to have chosen it over the Congress, propelled by the party's shrewd tie-up with the BSP.
The split in the Dalit-Muslim-lower caste vote has clearly benefitted the BJP, as in a number of seats, the Congress has lost with narrow margins.
Geographically too, the BJP is popular in north and central Karnataka while the JD(S) is strong in the Old Mysuru and southern Karnataka regions. In Old Mysuru, the JD(S) has retained its hold – in fact, it has snatched around 15 seats from the Congress, dealing the party a body blow in its stronghold.
The JD(S) played its cards well. While it consolidated its Dalit votes via the tie-up with the BSP, it also managed to secure the Asaddudin Owaisi-led AIMIM’s support. There have also been claims that the BJP and the JD(S) had an understanding, and the saffron party had fielded weak candidates on seats where the JD(S) could defeat the Congress.
In fact, even the Congress had accused the JD(S) of being the BJP’s “B team”.
Before the polls, both the Congress and the JD(S) had been advised to team up. Some public figures, led by 100-year-old freedom fighter HS Doreswamy, had met Deve Gowda and requested he support the Congress to defeat the “communal BJP”.
West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee had good-naturedly called Deve Gowda “a nice man”, saying that the “Congress should go with him to defeat the BJP.”
However, the Congress decided to go it alone, putting Siddaramaiah and Rahul Gandhi at the forefront.
The grand old party probably wants to hold on to its grand old pretensions, of being a major political force on its own and the principal challenger to the BJP. However, if it wishes even now to stop the saffron battering ram, it must recognise the power and importance of regional parties, and not dismiss the local player as being only that.
Also read: 10 reasons why BJP crushed Congress and won Karnataka decisively