Why India somersaulted against US over Jerusalem
Mota Bhai's Dhokla could be a little bitter for Bibi's palate if he decides to dig in after touching down in Ahmedabad in January and the Don may find his steak undercooked and his Diet Coke minus the fizz whenever he lands here. After Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bear hug with President Donald Trump, India's bullish stance against the US at the United Nations on his move to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel will undoubtedly rile Uncle Sam and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu.
The UN rattler - 128 nations voting overwhelmingly to condemn Trump's decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital - came despite Nikki Haley's hailstorm of brazen and abominable threat to member countries. "This vote will make a difference in how Americans look at the UN. And this vote will be remembered," thundered Trump's "Goebbels at the UN" before the voting. The threat followed "threatening-in-chief" Trump himself, who had said, "We're watching those votes."
India going against the grain of Modi's new-found bonhomie with Don and Bibi seems contradictory at first - yet it is logical. "Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self-interest," Napoleon Bonaparte had once remarked. Trade with the Arab world, the Palestinian cause and spiking Chinese influence in the Middle East comprise the fulcrum on which the lever of India-Israel ties rotate.
India has always valued and cherished its relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) especially its trade ties. Indian exports account for around nine per cent of the UAE's total imports. According to the Khaleej Times, the value of India-UAE trade was a staggering $60 billion in 2014 and could gallop to $100 billion by 2020. Besides, Indian expat workers in the seven emirates are a source of valuable remittance.
According to UAE's ministry of economy, India is among the top three sources of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UAE, which in turn is the largest investor in India from the Arab world mainly in construction, energy, services, computer software and hardware, petroleum products, precious metals, and precious stones and jewellery.
India also shares robust relations with Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's second-largest nation. The total value of exports and imports is more than $30 billion with Riyadh being one of New Delhi's top five trading partners. India imports nearly 20 per cent of the crude oil from Saudi Arabia. Besides, there are several Indian workers in Saudi numbering the highest number in the expat community.
India has also been cementing its ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In 2012-13, India exported goods worth around $51 billion to the GCC with bilateral trade at a whopping $159 billion. GCC nations house around 70 per cent of NRIs with annual remittance of around $40 billion.
Considering that the Gulf meets most of India's oil and gas requirements and is a major trading partner, Modi has already visited the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar with the aim of strengthening ties. UAE's Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, was the chief guest at the Republic Day parade. Besides, rich GCC nations are a tempting option that can further Modi's ambition to make India the number one investment destination.
The Palestinian cause has been an integral part of India's foreign policy in the Middle East. From late Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru to Narendra Modi, India has always espoused the Palestinian cause supporting the two-state theory. Way back in 1947, India voted against the partition of Palestine at the UN, recognised Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) as legitimate representative of Palestinians in 1974 and recognised the state of Palestine in 1988. Late PLO chairman Yaseer Arafat's openly expressed his fondness for "sister" Indira Gandhi and wept inconsolably at her funeral.
New Delhi has been extending financial aid to Palestine for years. According to the ministry of external affairs (MEA), India has so far provided budgetary support of $60 million to Palestine. Every time Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited India - 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 - a grant of $10 million was announced. In 2015, India provided another $9 million to Palestine. India-Palestine bilateral trade is around $40 million, according to the MEA. India played a big role in the construction of Jawaharlal Nehru Library at Al-Azhar University, Gaza City, and the Mahatma Gandhi Library-cum-Student Activity Centre at the Palestine Technical College, Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip.
An increasingly domineering China too plays a massive role in shaping up the Indian policy in Middle East. A more powerful Xi Jinping - who has consolidated his power by becoming the most powerful Chinese leader after Mao Zedong - fully supports the Palestinian theory of two-state solution with its capital in East Jerusalem and he assured Abbas during his visit to China in July of the same.
With a reckless Trump pulling out of key pacts like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Climate Accord, Xi has adopted a more aggressive posture with Beijing stepping on the gas in Middle East. Xi's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is the gateway to the Gulf, is a big concern for India. According to The Economist, trade between China and the Middle East has spiked to more than 600 per cent in the last decade. China is the most important source of imports for Bahrain, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia. As US puts brakes on imports from the Middle East, China has accelerated its purchase importing around 3 million barrels a day from the Middle East in 2015 itself.
In 2016, Xi had assured GCC secretary general Abdul Latif bin Rashid Al Zayani of boosting trade and energy cooperation with both men stressing expediting free trade talks (FTA) - which had started way back in 2004 - and more initiative under BRI. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud praised Xi's concerted efforts in restarting the FTA.
China has managed to walk the thin red line in Middle East very delicately and cautiously-it did not intervene in the Syrian conflict, avoided joining the war against the Islamic State and stayed out of the Saudi Arabian-Yemen imbroglio. But it has compensated the political non-interference with trade ties.
These three crucial factors were the prime drivers behind India voting against the US at the UN. India-Israel ties have grown rapidly after decades of New Delhi keeping away from Tel Aviv. According to the Indian Embassy in Tel Aviv, bilateral trade had jumped from $200 million in 1992 to $4.16 billion in 2016. Israel majorly imports diamonds and other precious stones, chemical and mineral products, machinery and electrical equipment and textiles while India imports arms, machinery and electrical equipment and metals. Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion data show that FDI from Israel since 2000 to 2016 totalled $107.6 million.
In the largest military exports pact with any country, Israel will supply an advanced defence system of medium-range surface-to-air missiles, launchers and communications technology worth $2 billion to India.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 41 per cent Israeli arms exports were shipped to India between 2012 and 2016. After Russia and the US, Israel was the largest source of arms for India in this period.
But India still voted against the US' move to recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital considering it has bigger and more strategic interests in the region.
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