Jammu and Kashmir: New year, new start

A momentous year has come to an end in Jammu and Kashmir — a year of immense tragedy caused by the havoc of nature, and also a year of intense political activity, reflected through two major electoral exercises conducted with rigour and dynamic political equations. Equally, the year 2014 saw comparatively less violence in the hinterland and increasing violence at the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). Internationally, one could also see enhanced activity on Ladakh’s Line of Actual Control (LAC) and an emerging vacuum in Afghanistan, especially after the withdrawal of the US-led NATO forces — these two events too have their impact on Kashmir. In the midst of the continuing political arithmetic and quest for compromise, the overall situation in the state can be classified neither as one which is ascendant nor on a descent. It is midway between tipping points and can be pushed to either side.

There are opportunities galore and threats lurking around the corner as 2015 heralds. How this pans out will be contingent upon the various stakeholders and their ability to arrive at compromise in thus far apparently rigid stands. Realistically, it will take just a little to bring the situation in the Valley to the negative and much statesmanship to take it to the positive.

Politics

Political negotiations need not always be viewed negatively and be linked to compromise of core values of political stakeholders. Many a time coalitions can reflect basic minimum meeting points where very strong views are laid to rest. The recent election has thrown up such an opportunity and compromises may reflect pragmatic understanding of national interest. If this be so, J&K will have a win-win situation which could lay to rest some of the inherent fears existent with fractured polity. However, the representation factor of ensuring fair voice for all segments is almost a prerequisite where large chunks of the electorate cannot be ignored in any coalition. If such a formula does emerge, what would be issues of national interest which will chalk them into any working charter, at least for the early part of the administration?

Observers who have kept an eye on J&K through 25 years of turbulence would generally agree that any attempt to push the pace would be counterproductive. It is all about the people of the state being allowed to lead a normal life even as strident efforts are made towards improving their lot in terms of quality of life and self-esteem. Basic amenities need to be delivered with some vigour, and business opportunities among the three parts need development as there exists much scope given the archaic winter management practices of the Valley and Ladakh. The key to this lies largely in Jammu whose energetic business community has not been allowed to meet its aspirations. Jammu’s thriving religious tourism and industrial potential are as yet nascent and need to be taken to a much higher level, even as constitutional restrictions are under debate. The reconstruction business after the disastrous floods will see a spurt in economic activity provided there is a concerted effort to ensure that opportunities are first available within the state before a national footprint is brought to bear.

Tourism

Kashmir’s tourist potential has taken a beating and needs urgent restoration. This is the opportunity to bring greater quality to the doorstep, enhance the quantitative potential and introduce the long awaited rural tourism to add to the overall capacity. The Valley’s fruit and agro industry is reeling under the effects of the floods and needs urgent attention. Ladakh’s splendid landscape needs infusion of capital for enhanced tourism and all three parts of the state need a fillip in power management. All this will be possible if the coalition sheds inhibitions, keeps an open mind and takes assistance from the Centre in importing better administrative "skin ware" with a passion to see J&K out of the economic woods. Minds closed to the restoration of demographic profile through return of rightful residents in the form of Kashmir Pandits will do little good. This return must be allowed to remain a natural activity instead of a contrived one, and it is good to see the strong support of the Centre towards it.

Disputes

Controversy and triggers are common in the politico-social landscape of J&K. It will need much more than cosmetic compromises for any coalition to wade through these with confidence. Memories of the shrine board land case are as yet fresh as are the manipulations which brought a non-issue to a critical mass to so upset the security equilibrium of the sensitive state for three years. These have to be avoided/shelved. Other security sensitivities relate to the potential of terror and the proxy war situation. The coalition must be prepared for one bottom line consideration and that is the respect it must have for the security realm. Compromise in this area should be non-negotiable as the "last mile" situation is always replete with potential for blowback.

Premature and hasty decisions affecting the security grid will return to haunt in the approaching times. The situation in Afghanistan remains fluid. The Punjab-based terror groups nurtured by the ISI are working hard to make a comeback at a time when they feel their long years of efforts are being effectively checkmated by India’s political and economic resurgence, whose effect on J&K is bound to be irretrievably in India’s favour. The LoC and the IB are already the symbols of Pakistan’s attempts towards tethering India. It’s ironic that on the last day of 2014 this issue was making headlines alongside the efforts at government formation.