J&K polls: Is BJP’s Mission 44 mission impossible?
Ever since the Election Commission announced the polling schedule for Jammu and Kashmir, the question that everyone is asking is, whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will weave his magic once again. Will this be the first-ever BJP government in J&K. The rank and file of BJP activists is buoyant after recent successes in Haryana and Maharashtra. They feel that J&K isn’t out of their reach.
Having tasted success already in the Lok Sabha elections where BJP secured the highest vote share of 31 per cent and won three Lok Sabha seats in J&K, BJP believes this is their best ever chance in the state. Would the BJP emerge as the single largest party even though it may not be able to form the government on its own? Is 44 plus an achievable target or a mere mirage?
It is true that the BJP has momentum on its side while the Omar Abdullah government is in tatters. Even before the fight began Omar abandoned his home turf (Ganderbal) to fight in Sonawar (where he will face a formidable PDP opponent) and Beerwah (where he believes Shias will vote for him). Things are no better for the Congress.
The very fact that Ghulam Nabi Azad, a political stalwart, lost to a then political lightweight like Dr Jitender Singh says a lot about the pathetic condition the Congress is in. In the years it has been out of power, PDP has strengthened its organisational network. It has expanded its base in Jammu, especially the Muslim majority areas of Jammu division.
In the Lok Sabha elections the BJP won both the seats in Jammu division. It is likely to do well again in the Assembly segments in plains of Jammu i.e. Jammu, Kathua and Udhampur. One cannot say the same for Assembly segments in the hilly areas of Poonch, Rajouri, Bahderwah, Doda and Kishtwar.
Among the total 37 seats in Jammu Division it has a great chance of winning in 17 seats but will face stiff competition in the remaining seats.
It will be interesting to see how local issues play out in the hilly areas of Jammu. Choice of candidates too will be crucial. One already hears rumblings from the older guard because they are being eased out. There would be close contests in Kishtwar, Rajouri and Badherwah towns. Out of the four seats in Ladakh they stand a good chance of winning two seats but that too will depend on the consolidation of the Buddhist-Shia vote.
The real test would however be in Kashmir. The BJP has done a lot of groundwork in Kashmir. It has almost honeycombed the area and identified segments where it can win or has a chance of winning. It has worked out high turnout/low turnout voter scenarios and what-if case studies. It has identified some 12 seats with sizeable KP (Kashmiri Pandit) population and is making serious efforts that all Kashmiri Pandits are registered as voters in their respective constituencies no matter where are they are based today. They are also eyeing the Shia and Gujjar voters, both communities in the past have either voted for Congress or the NC.
The BJP strategy is grand but does it have men on the ground to implement that strategy remains to be seen. Its organisational structure is skeletal at best. Attempts to lure other smaller groups and formations haven’t yielded much so far. In any case it is better to go alone rather than join hands with erstwhile separatists and known India-haters.
There is a lot of talk of a scenario of a low voter turnout. In my opinion the turnout would not be any different from the Lok Sabha elections. Even if there is a likelihood of a low turnout or even a talk of it and BJP does indeed consolidate the KP vote, PDP would be the biggest beneficiary of this exercise. They will whip up their Jamait votes and a reverse consolidation will mean a complete sweep in rural and rurban areas of Kashmir in favour of PDP. PDP is a veteran of such electoral tactics, even in the past it has used the otherwise "pro-independence" Jamait followers and their families to vote en masse for a party that they believe is closer to them than the NC.
Whatever may have been the raison d’etre for BJP setting itself a target of 44 plus the men at the helm of affairs would know that achieving or even coming close to this number would be working a miracle. I am not discounting the miracle of '73 in UP or sweeping Gujarat or Rajasthan but then Jammu & Kashmir is different. In my opinion, for BJP this election isn’t about winning or losing. Even if they manage to win two to three seats in Kashmir (which in itself would be a very tough ask), it would be a greater victory than winning a Lok Sabha seat in West Bengal. They will finally have a foot in the door.
20-22 seats in J&K would be a victory in itself, anything above that would be a windfall.