Why India needn't worry about failed talks with Pakistan

The much-hyped national security adviser (NSA)-level talks between India and Pakistan scheduled for this week may have collapsed even before they could formally start. But the Modi government managed to convey the message that it has been successful in reshaping the terms of New Delhi's engagement with Islamabad, perhaps forever. This is a seismic shift in India's Pakistan policy and should be recognised as such.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif had met in Ufa, Russia on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit last month. They issued a joint statement in which they "condemned terrorism in all its forms and agreed to cooperate with each other to eliminate the menace of terrorism from South Asia". It would have been an ordinary meeting but for the fact that the two leaders were meeting for the first time since May 2014 and their meeting came after increased border hostilities in the past few months and in the backdrop of India having cancelled secretary-level talks last year. When Modi held his first meeting with Sharif in Delhi soon after becoming the prime minister in May 2014, the two decided to hold secretary-level talks which were scheduled for August 2014. But those talks were cancelled by India after Pakistan's engagement with Kashmiri separatists. So after more than ten months, the Modi government's decision to re-engage Pakistan was seen by some as New Delhi's "on again, off again" approach towards Pakistan while others hyped it as being a "gamechanger" and a "breakthrough".

Also read: How not to hold India-Pakistan talks

At Ufa, Modi and Sharif agreed to hold a meeting of their top security advisers to discuss terrorism. But there were other steps as well, including meetings of the director generals of India's Border Security Force (BSF) and Pakistan Rangers to stabilise the border, releasing fishermen in each other's custody, and a mechanism for facilitating religious tourism. Additionally, Modi accepted Sharif's invitation to the South Asian regional summit, which is going to be held in Islamabad next year. The trip will not only be Modi's first visit to Pakistan after coming to power but it would also be the first time an Indian leader would visit Pakistan since Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004.

Also read: Why peace between India and Pakistan is jinxed

Pakistan's agreement to expedite the 2008 Mumbai terror attack trial and no specific mention of Kashmir was viewed as a major diplomatic victory for India and the sign of a changing mindset in Pakistan. But the euphoria vanished within hours as Pakistan went back on a number of its commitments. Sharif's national security adviser made it clear that more information would be required to resume the trial of Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the alleged mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai attack. Lakhvi, the operational commander of the now banned organisation Laskhar-e-Taiba (LeT) is among the seven persons charged with planning and helping to carry out the Mumbai attack. Much to India's consternation, he was released from jail in April, after a court order dismissed detention orders issued against him. Islamabad also reiterated that there could not be any dialogue with India unless the issue of Kashmir was on the agenda.

Days before this week's meeting of the two NSAs, it had seemed that both sides were provoking each other to cancel the talks. Pakistan expected that India would allow its national security adviser Sartaj Aziz to meet the Kashmiri separatist leaders during his visit to Delhi. And India made it clear that it would not be "appropriate" for Aziz to meet the leaders and briefly detained and released some of them to buttress its point. And finally, Pakistan decided to call off the talks after Indian foreign minister Sushma Swaraj reiterated that bilateral talks could not take place if Pakistan's national security adviser did not drop plans to meet the Kashmiri separatist leaders.

Ever since coming to power in May 2014, the Modi government has been gradually reshaping the underpinnings of India's Pakistan policy. It appears to have recognised from the very beginning that a quest for durable peace with Pakistan is a non-starter. All that matters is the management of a neighbour that is more often than not viewed as a nuisance by Delhi. For India, the real challenge is China which has pledged $46bn worth of investment in Pakistan and recently blocked India's move to seek action against Pakistan for the release of Lakhvi in the Mumbai attack trial at a meeting of the UN Sanctions Committee.

After years of ceding the initiative to Pakistan, the Indian government wants to dictate the terms for negotiations. It has reached out to the Pakistani civilian government even as it has decided to underline to the Pakistani military the costs of its dangerous escalatory tactics on the border with massive targeted attacks on Pakistani forces along the border. And now with its latest move of drawing clear red lines for Pakistan, it has sent out several signals to its various interlocutors. To Pakistan, the message cannot be clearer that there are only two parties involved in the dispute. The separatist leaders of Kashmir have no locus standi in the matter and India retains the levers to marginalise them should the need arise. In one stroke, New Delhi has made the separatist hardliners of Kashmir irrelevant and Pakistan will find that its old tactic of wooing the separatists will no longer pay any dividends.

The Modi government has also underscored for the international community, the continuing primacy of the Pakistani army in setting the agenda for Islamabad's India policy. Nawaz Sharif, howsoever well-intentioned, is yet to demonstrate that he can take on the all-powerful military when it comes to India. This was evident when border tensions rose soon after his meeting with Modi last month and suggestions from the Pakistani army that it has shot down an Indian drone which later turned out to be Chinese made DJI phantom 3.

At a time when Indian foreign policy horizons are widening and New Delhi is self-confident about its own role in the world, the Modi government has decided to leave it to Pakistan to decide if it wants to engage with India. If its only instrument of choice remains terrorism and non-state actors, then the Indian military is enough to tackle it. Indian diplomacy has more important things to worry about.