How Modi can change India

Indians around the world are being pushed against a wall. I've seen it more than once in multiple iterations. Pressed and badgered, as if by the Grand Inquisitor, people demand a hard pronouncement. It seems anyone with links to the subcontinent must declare, with meagre time to reflect, whether PM Modi really will change India.

Statesman

His rock star debut in New York, winding up twenty thousand expat Indians into a frenzy at Madison Square Garden, further feeds the probing. At some level this is gratifying. That the fate of India engages people illustrates the country's gravitational pull on hearts and minds - India's soft power as it were - like non-Indian interrogators tenderly mouthing rondelles of chicken tikka masala or being swaddled all summer in sunny Jaipur cotton prints. Solid cohorts of the desi diaspora evangelise the affirmative. India is off to the races, they assert. Growth is back, mismanagement squelched, infrastructure will be built. Optimism is coupled with a steady stream of media pieces gleefully forwarded as evidence things have turned around.

Then come naysayers. Nothing will change, they insist. Problems are too systemic and deep rooted and politicians today are all the same sub-species, ineffectual and self-serving. The human vice for certitude, to parse the world into black or white, is relentless. It's the same realityshrouding impulse that drives everyone from fascist dictators and Newtonian economists, to religious fundamentalists, notwithstanding the fact the mysterious and partially knowable are at the heart of so much of human experience. At the same time, we crave a hero, someone in whom to invest our hopes, possessed of plenary agency and capacity to set things right.

In New York, PM Modi's electrifying, heroic wow factor was unambiguous. "What energy and aura," my friend Jayati from California effused. Others noted how Modi had social media buzzing (people apparently failed to heed recent warnings that repeated texting thickens the tendons in your thumbs!)

Modi's first incisive New York move was to dispatch the fawning, local, entrenched political hacks trailing him into the spotlight at the Garden. Then, solo at centre stage, the PM captivated the crowd, evincing that he amounts to more than someone who skidded into office on discontent's slipstream. Bracketing hyperbolic adulation, at a minimum, Narendra Modi evokes a collective sigh of relief. Finally, we have a leader who's charismatic, appears pragmatic and has an articulated vision.

Polarising

Modi's ability to inspire people is hugely positive. The fact that his past is polarising seems to work to his advantage, pushing people into camps of those for or against him. Right now a majority, including global media, are supportive. "India Hedge Funds Are World's Best Performer on 'Modi, the Hero,' " a recent headline proclaimed. The perception that Modi's policies will benefit the Indian economy is now a settled sentiment. And sentiment, we know, is the materia prima upon which the whole fabric of social and economic life unfurls.

What becomes critical is the magnitude of the gulf between perception - what people believe or are made to believe - and realities on the ground. Will regime change in Delhi tangibly translate into profound structural and institutional reforms that ripple across the land? And will we see credible and sustainable results?

Before praising or blaming politicians for anything, one must recite a caveat - many events are circumstantial or the effect of random exogenous forces beyond individual control. But leadership, nevertheless, does matter. Rudderless states inevitably run aground. PM Modi, to his credit, has cast himself as an active, game-changing causal agent determined to bring about positive reforms.

Cleanliness

Take his Swachh Bharat campaign. Not only is this an inspired notion (so much of social life proceeds from cleanliness and hygiene), it's something everyone can get behind. From public health and environmental stewardship, to unclogging highways and demanding moral hygiene in public and corporate governance, a nationwide cleanup is a worthy undertaking. In this regard, the grassroots effort incentivising citizens in garbage-infested Curitiba, Brazil in the 1970s provides a useful behavioural model.

An important insight when trying to effect sweeping change is that small changes at the margins can bring about outsized larger effects. Society is a complex system. Behavioural catalysts that nudge these changes and their path dependencies must be properly thought out and positioned.

Another matter needing attentiveness is the problem of unintended consequences. On the surface promoting bank accounts for every Indian sounds quite sensible. But is India ready to be awash in credit as local banks rush to convert deposits into assets, engaging in the kind of indiscriminate lending that always accompanies liquidity windfalls in the banking system? Additionally, with talk of trade, it's essential to remember that trade is not a value-neutral notion - what's being traded, with whom and how trade imbalances play out, are all deeply significant. Also, trading higher margin goods where you keep a larger percentage of the profits is preferable.

Then one must question whether the rampant push for growth will submit India to volatile boom bust cycles characteristic of the broader global economy where speculative, leverage-driven bubbles are the norm? PM Modi's media savvy, cannily choreographed rallies, tweets and charm offensives - the stuff of contemporary political theatre - get him full marks. The jury is still out on how thoughtfully the Modi Administration looks to history and acts intelligently when crafting public policy.

From Dilma's Brazil to Obama's America, politicians rudely awaken to how swiftly the wheel of political fortune turns. Addressing sixty thousand in Central Park, PM Modi concluded quoting Star Wars - may the force be with you! Given monumental challenges ahead, it's an invocation he needs just as strongly for himself.