What secular parties can learn from the Sangh Parivar
An interesting reason behind the rise of Hindutva has been the steady decline of the Indian Left. In its heydays, in the 1950s to the 1990s, the two major communist parties were a formidable force, though already running out of momentum.
Towards the end of this period in 1996, Jyoti Basu, a towering CPI(M) leader, was offered the position of the prime minister by a combination of secular parties. But his comrades thought otherwise. Two of them Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury later became the most recent general secretaries in this century. It was truly as Jyoti Basu called it "a historic blunder". The other Left parties tried their best, but could not move their obdurate comrades.
Thereafter, the decline.
As my friend and political guru professor Jawed Alam of the CPI(M) reminded me, Leftists must not forget the "autonomy of power". National politics did provide for some autonomy in a disparate alliance looking to the Left. It is necessary to remember that the resurgence of the Sangh Parivar began a few years earlier in December 1992 with the Congress-aided demolition of the Babri Masjid.
Not only was the practice terribly flawed, but the theory too was dogmatised. In the Soviet Union, de-Stalinisation started in 1956. Lenin's last writings of 1922-23 calling upon his party to "find a way to remove Comrade Stalin from power", was overruled by most of his comrades in the central committee, some 90 per cent of whom were later executed at Stalin's behest. Yet almost the entire Left still venerates Stalin.
Contrast this with the Sangh. They have respect for sarsanghchalaks such as Keshav Hedgewar (though his death anniversary is celebrated as International Yoga Day) and MS "Guru" Gowalkar, but not venerated as much as Stalin or Mao Zedong by the Left. Supple and deft in power, the Sangh has wooed thousands of secularists to their ranks.
Several centrist parties have joined their alliances. The throngs of RSS volunteers vastly outnumber the diminishing cadres of the Left. It makes a critical difference.
As long back as 2013, the Sangh Parivar cadres were at work in Uttar Pradesh. They divided the OBCs pitting Yadavs versus Kurmis with the smaller OBCs linking up against the Yadavs. The Dalit sub-castes not at the core of the BSP were weaned away. The Congress' upper caste base, especially the Brahmins were attracted to the BJP. The Muslims were wary, but voted tactically.
What happened in 2014 is well-known. But the electoral numbers need to be analysed. The BJP got 31 per cent of the national vote share. Its allies got 4 per cent for a total of 35 per cent of the national vote share. But with the first past the vote system (FPTP), there is a disjunct between vote shares and seats.
As an alliance/party crosses 30 per cent, its number of seats rise disproportionately, and vice-versa, unless there are two equally balanced alliances. A declining Congress with an inept leadership was unequal to the task of forging a broad alliance. The secular parties were divided, further splitting the vote.
The recent UP Assembly elections were more of the same. The NDA got a shade under 40 per cent. The BSP and the Left, among others, were kept out of the SP-Congress alliance. Ghulam Nabi Azad, a Kashmiri, was the Congress alliance welder. He fought hard and wrested 105 seats, refusing any to the Jats and other castes and communities. The Congress won only five seats, a historic low. The Samajwadi Party was decimated. No self-criticism by the Congress.
The 60 per cent anti-NDA votes were scattered. The Left, bereft of any significant alliance, also hit a historic low. It got 0.02 per cent of the vote share. Some self-criticism, but inadequate analysis and less discussion on rejuvenating the cadre strength.
The 2019 General Elections are not far away. But where is the alliance building by the secularists?
In the meantime, leaders from the secular parties are pouring into the BJP, even the 83-year-old ex-Congressman Jaffer Sharief supports the presidential non-candidate Mohan Bhagwat, as well as the younger SM Krishna, former Karnataka CM. Big business has done fairly well through the sops given by the Modi government, and hopes to do better. The media is full of praise for the ruling party, and hardly anyone mentions demonetisation and its consequences.
The Modi government has rammed through a law, allowing business to give confidential financial contributions to political parties. The die is cast.
The main challenge to the NDA requires a complete overhaul of the secular forces as well as an immense effort to build strong alliances across the board. This is indeed a daunting task. But the BJP is where it is because it faced and overcame the challenges it faced. It is now in a strategic position and will be hard to push back.
But the secular forces and people will have to find a way. The alternative is much worse.
Also read: Secular parties need to get together to defeat BJP at its own game