The behind-the-scene moments at HD Kumaraswamy's swearing-in
A warm hug here, a wide smile there, a lot of whispering into the ears and chatting about good old times — the galaxy of Opposition leaders and their interpersonal skills were at their best during the swearing-in of HD Kumaraswamy as the chief minister of Karnataka. It was indeed much more than the beginning of a government formation in the state.
United but little in common
While the Opposition show of unity was on full display, other than their "secular" credentials and a common enemy — the BJP — they have very little in common. (Something that could also be gauged by the "awkward" hug that Sonia Gandhi greeted Mayawati with even as Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan did not acknowledge his counterpart from West Bengal Mamata Banerjee.)
Regional versus national
The Karnataka verdict was more or less clear cut. If you want to conclude that it was an anti-BJP verdict you can do so. If you are of the opinion that it was a pro-Congress-JD(S) verdict you are free to assume so.
But one thing is clear, if you look at the election results in the recent past. Right from the time of Gujarat Assembly polls, you may have probably noticed that there is a certain amount of net electoral gain for the Opposition parties. Most of these Opposition parties comprise strong regional parties including the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, TRS, TDP, YSRCP, AAP and a few other national parties, including the Left.
But as far as the vote share is concerned, the regional parties have a larger share than the national parties.
While the Congress made considerable gains in Gujarat, enough to send jitters across the rank and file of the BJP, one also has to take into consideration how much of it was due to factors like anti-incumbency or policy paralysis. An election is a result of all these factors combined as the electorate exercise their franchise.
In the three by-elections in Rajasthan, back in February, the Congress gained at the cost of the BJP. There were a few short-lived issues as well, including the release of a movie — Padmaavat. However, the big picture clearly points towards the failure of the incumbent government in bringing development to the constituencies. If any government sticks to its agenda of delivering on its promises it should do well, irrespective of the narrative dominating the national discourse.
Friends turn foes and vice versa
While the Shiv Sena and the BJP are on a collision course, other Opposition parties, mostly the ones we saw on the stage of the Vidhan Soudha today, would not dare to "touch" the Shiv Sena, not to mention a political alliance with it. Maybe outside support at best, but these parties would never a share the stage with the Shiv Sena.
The TDP and TRS have their own battles, mainly with the YSRCP. While a rejuvenated Jaganmohan Reddy has managed to become the BJP's "new-found ally", N Chandrababu Naidu is increasingly seen as trying to forge an alliance of regional parties after deserting the NDA. Also, if Jaganmohan will go with the NDA or not would depend on how the YSRCP fares in the Assembly elections in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.
So far, the BJD has shied away from lending a clear support to the united Opposition. So, it can be considered a fence sitter, along with the AIADMK and the DMK, though the latter has shown more signs of joining the Opposition ranks.
Shot at redemption
What has changed with the swearing-in in Bangalore today is that the Congress has seen a reversal of roles in state politics. This is not the first time. There have been precedents, for instance, in Bihar. But what was different in Karnataka was that here the Congress party was in power — it managed to win sufficiently higher number of seats than its coalition partner, yet is forced to play the second fiddle.
If the national leadership in Congress is behind this decision, it is a welcome sign. A sign that the Congress has realised that in order to preserve its national standing, it has to play second fiddle to its regional partners. It is not a matter of political prestige, it is all about the will to survive in a rapidly changing political landscape.
In a way, prime minister Narendra Modi is acting as a catalyst in redrawing the boundaries of cooperation between Opposition entities. The BJP and its allies would ideally like to hold on to the fortresses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, while the Opposition would also fancy its chances in these states, especially with the combined vote share clearly indicating major gains for the Opposition.
But the Congress must not forget that in Karnataka it had "master strategist" Siddaramaiah, who did enough to offset the BJP's aggressive thrust. This also shows that local stalwarts can get the Congress more votes and seats rather than the party relying completely on regional allies.
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