Rahul Gandhi reaching out to Dalits may hurt BJP's chances in Gujarat polls

Now that the Gujarat election dates are drawing closer, campaigning has reached a feverish pitch and is set to get more intense, coarser — balanced on both optics and strategy. Every single move, from now, will matter, and even a small step could go a long way in winning the loyalty of a voter group. Gujarat will be the first major Congress-BJP battle and also the first since 2014 when BJP is not the challenger but the incumbent. And that ordinary citizens are referring to this election as a “50-50” affair indicates it is a tight contest.

There is no denial that the Congress has had some early gains and has forced the BJP to get to their challenging best to protect their electoral citadel from being taken over. This was unthinkable, just some months back, when the BJP juggernaut seemed unchallengeable. Taking these very small but elemental steps in Gujarat politics, the Congress has made a strong outreach to the Dalit community.

On November 24, Rahul Gandhi addressed the community members at the Dalit Shakti Kendra in Sanand near Ahmedabad and made a strong political statement by accepting the country’s largest national flag that the Dalits had presented to Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani in August this year, asking him to declare at least one village in the state untouchability-free.

The government had not accepted the flag stating it had no space to keep it. On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi not only scored a political goal against the BJP by accepting the same Dalit-made flag but also set the narrative on inclusiveness and secularism, the twig leaves of the Congress. This is perhaps the first time in the last three decades when a Congress leader has made such an overt appeal to the community. The Dalits have basically remained an ignorant political class in Gujarat politics owing to their low numbers (they constitute only 7 per cent of the electoral population) and, therefore, they are mostly scattered.

Even in constituencies which are reserved for Scheduled Castes, they matter no less than 15 per cent and, thus, these can easily be won without their mass support. The attack on Dalits in Una, in 2016, has already turned the community against the BJP, and the rise of Jignesh Mevani and the Congress agreeing to his demands has turned the tide in favour of the Congress.

In such a scenario, an overt statement about Dalit outreach is bound to gain major traction; more important is its spill over into national politics — a statement against untouchability will get the Gandhi scion many fans in the community across the country.

The forgotten class

Dalits are clearly forgotten: they are not just missing from Gujarat politics but also from the entire development agenda. As pointed out by Dalit activist Martin Macwan at the event: "Even 70 years after Independence untouchably has not ended. In a survey, we found that in 90 per cent villages Dalits are not allowed to enter into temples, in 55 per cent schools, Dalit children are asked to sit separately during midday meals.”

The Dalit protests are taking quirky turns in the political battlefield of Gujarat. Just a month back, Dalit rights’ leaders organised a 20km-long “moustache rally” of 1,000 youth from Gandhinagar, the state capital, to Limbodara village, where two Dalit youths were beaten up in September for sporting a moustache similar to that of upper caste Darbar Rajputs.

Thus, by standing by them and talking of untouchability, Rahul Gandhi has made a huge political statement. And all such moves have been proven to leave national footprints.

Threat from Patidars

If there is one major highlight from Gujarat politics so far, it is the shift in Patidar votes from the BJP’s end to the Congress’. Though Patidars don’t have a natural predilection for the Congress, the grand old party has become the default anti-BJP option. But this shift could also cost the Congress its traditional vote base of Adivasis and Dalits, which have been at the receiving end of Patidar violence against the reservation policy of the Madhav Singh Solanki-led Congress government in the 1980s.

While Dalits may still be in silent mode for now, the overtures made to the Adivasi community by the BJP and the RSS, over the years, seem to be bearing fruit. The RSS, through its Vanvasi Kalyan Kendras, has been trying to gain ground in the Adivasi areas of central and south Gujarat where Congress has a very old support base.

This could deal a major blow to the Congress’ strategy of gaining ground in Gujarat. While the Congress has forged an alliance with Chotu Vasava’s newly formed Bhartiya Tribal Party, it is yet to break major ground. And it will still be hard to predict to what extent the Congress’ love for Patidars would push the core Adivasi vote in favour of the BJP. The community has always had a soft spot for the Congress, and given that they have been the most neglected marginalised group in Gujarat’s changing economic and social landscape, they are more willing to hug the Congress.

The national imprint

Politicians rarely take moves without analysing the wider consequences of their choices and actions. Even at its worst, the Congress is no stranger to this fact. Rahul Gandhi knows that in this era of fast moving news and views, no action has a political boundary or memory. The news piece was widely covered and this was soon followed by Gandhi’s picture of hugging and consoling a contractual teacher as she lamented about government policies. They took a short time to go viral. A good political strategist would know pictures evoke emotions and tell a larger story. Gandhi’s words are bound to reach a larger audience outside the state.

Nothing seems simple and clear in this election. All punditry has failed, and if there is one thing that can be said about the polls, it is that the fight will be for every single vote.

The Congress has played a smart game this season, keeping away from the communal fault lines of the state, shuffling its caste cards well and taking the narrative towards issues that hurt the BJP most - jobs and economy.

It has been using the two pins of caste dynamics and joblessness to deflate the BJP’s balloon. The Dalit vote, though scattered and handful, still has the potential to take the sheen out of BJP’s Gujarat story.

At the end of the day, it’s all things “elementary” that will matter in winning this election.

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