Why talking about Modi won't help Congress in Gujarat polls

I recently met Dr BC Agarwal, former head of Taleem Foundation, and a person who has conducted numerous surveys on Gujarat elections in the past. This time, Agarwal is not conducting any such survey but he gave me some interesting insights into the last four polls held in the state.

Agarwal predicts another BJP victory in December 2017. But he made some interesting observations. He told me that the Congress has a solid 35 per cent voter base, which has remained loyal to the party in almost every election. The political analyst said that the Congress supporters are not vocal but solidly rally behind the party in each poll.

Let us look at elections from 2002 onwards. We have had three elections in the state in 2002, 2007 and 2012. Here are the voting percentages:

We have also had three parliamentary elections in 2004, 2009 and 2014. Here are the voting percentages for the state:

We can see a clear pattern. Narendra Modi was the person the electorate was voting for as chief minister in 2002, 2007 and 2012 elections and again Modi was the person, the electorate was voting for as Prime Minister in 2014 general elections.

The gap between BJP and Congress in the three state elections was 9 per cent, but it was a whopping 27 per cent in the 2014 national elections. This is understandable because the people of Gujarat took immense pride in having their chief minister get elected as the Prime Minister.

Now, let us look at 2004 and 2009 national elections where Modi was not projected as Prime Minister. The gap shrunk to just around 3 per cent. The voting percentage also dropped since there was lesser enthusiasm given Modi was not directly in the picture. Another point to be noted is that the Congress voter base has never dropped below 32 per cent, which was its worst performance in 2014. This proves what Agarwal told me - the Congress does have a core support of about 35 per cent.

This makes the 2017 contest fascinating. Will the electorate vote like 2002, 2007 and 2012 though Modi is not in the fray? Or will they vote like 2004 and 2009, when Modi was not in the picture directly?

If Modi continues to be the main BJP campaign figure, the electorate will vote like they did in the elections of 2002, 2007 and 2012. This may give BJP a comfortable lead of around 9 per cent. If the spotlight shifts to chief minister Vijay Rupani, the fight would get much closer. The lead could drop to about 3 per cent if the spotlight shifts from Modi to the BJP state government. The state government will have to defend its performance and the anti-incumbency factor will come into play.

Modi being a shrewd player, realises this and hence is doing hectic campaigning. He wants to ensure that he is the face of the election and the state polls are converted into a Modi versus Congress election. Modi will try his old tricks to ensure a victory in Gujarat, which include talking about the negation of the Gujarat growth story and also play on Gujarati pride.

The Congress has its task cut out. They have to ensure that the election remains about local issues and raise matters such as the Patidar unrest, the Una flogging and keep emphasising on the slowdown in the economy.

Too much focus on Modi will damage Congress' prospects.

A narrow defeat will look like a victory for the Congress after 32 years. The last election Congress won in the state was in 1985. The Congress' strategy should be simple. Focus on the state government and shun any issue which brings Modi into the picture. The Congress, which looked shattered in July, seems to be fighting hard. Rahul seems to be learning the ropes and the campaign is being better managed by senior party leader and former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot.

The road ahead for Congress is tough. The party has been out of power for 32 years. The state Congress leaders lack administrative experience, though Bharatsinh Solanki has been a central minister. The party is also missing the presence of its tall leaders such as Chimanbhai Patel and Amarsinh Chaudhary, while Madhavsinh Solanki is too old. The party is, therefore, clearly eyeing a rebirth in the state.

We may be headed for a fascinating election. The results, of course, will be known only on December 18.

Also read: Why a win may not be enough for BJP in Modi's Gujarat