Congress must swallow its pride, let GST pass

The meeting of the empowered committee of state finance ministers, held in Kolkata on June 14, may have raised the hopes for the passage of the crucial Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill in the forthcoming monsoon session of Parliament, but it has proportionately heightened the dilemma of the Congress.

The main opposition party at the Centre finds itself in a spot because Union finance minister Arun Jaitley said after the meeting that all states, except J Jayalalithaa-ruled AIADMK government of Tamil Nadu, have supported the idea of GST.

The Congress is considered as architect of GST. In 2011, the Congress-led UPA government had introduced the Constitution (115th Amendment) Bill in Parliament. However, the Bill lapsed with the dissolution of the 15th Lok Sabha. In a turn of events, the Congress has been stonewalling the passage of the Constitution (122nd Amendment) Bill ever since it was first introduced by the BJP-led NDA government in the Lok Sabha in December of 2014.

The NDA's majority ensured the passage of the Bill in the Lower House in May 2015. However, the Congress has been disrupting the Upper House, where it used to be the single largest party, in order to block the GST Bill.

But, with another turn of events, the Congress needs to worry now because of these three reasons:

1. Congress-ruled states supported GST

The ministers from 22 states who attended the committee meeting included those such as Karnataka, which are ruled by the Congress. By and large, the Congress-ruled states also gave a green signal to GST. Trinamool Congress-ruled West Bengal finance minister Amit Mitra seconded Jaitley's remark that all states, including Congress-ruled ones, were on board over the long pending contentious issue.

"Mamata Banerjee has extended full support for GST… All states supported GST today. Certain reservations of Congress-ruled states are issues that belong to the operational domain of GST and can be discussed and sorted out," said Mitra, who also heads the empowered committee.

2. BJP's edge over Congress in Rajya Sabha

The GST Bill is also known as the Constitution (122nd Amendment) Bill, 2014. All constitutional amendment Bills should be passed by a two-thirds majority. It was passed in the Lok Sabha May 6, 2015. It was referred to a Select Committee of the Rajya Sabha on May 14, 2015. The committee is scheduled to submit its report by the end of the first week of the upcoming monsoon session sometime in July. The government will move the Bill in this session and seek its passage.

Passage of the Bill should be easy for the Narendra Modi government because the strength of the Congress-led UPA has dwindled. For the first time ever, it now lags behind rival BJP-led NDA. While the UPA has 71 MPs in the 245-member Upper House, the NDA, with 74, has three more MPs than it. This gives a psychological advantage to the BJP, which is aggressively seeking the support of the regional parties. Therefore, on this crucial matter, it can bank on the support of several regional players including the Trinamool Congress, BJD, JD(U), DMK, RJD, SP, BSP, TRS and about a dozen nominated members.

As the math shows, the Congress stands isolated in the House, as far as GST Bill is concerned.

3. Shrinking number of Congress-ruled states

After the May 2016 results in four states, the Congress' rule has got restricted to just six of the total 29 states. After the GST Bill is passed, it has to be ratified by half the number of states, that is 15. This means that the NDA-ruled states alone can ensure ratification of the Bill, without even seeking out the UPA-ruled states or even the non-NDA, non-UPA governed states.

Additionally, it is still likely to get the backing of several regional parties. This makes Congress-ruled states' support, or the lack of it, more or less redundant.

Given what's at stake, it is obvious that the Congress finds itself in a highly unenviable position, perhaps the lowest point at which the party has witnessed itself in its 130-year-old history. That the grand old party stands on crossroads over GST, a Bill it conceived but couldn't legislate, has not gone unnoticed.

As of now, the Congress has three limited, and equally bitter, options to choose from:

A. Disruption of Rajya Sabha proceedings

The Congress can no longer afford to adopt the tactics which it has indulged in so far - creating ruckus in the Upper House to see that the NDA big ticket Bills are not passed. Neither the Congress is the largest party, nor the UPA is the biggest formation in the House anymore. If they create pandemonium despite this pitiable arithmatic, it would invite further perception backlash and be seen as a stumbling block in Modi's roadmap for NDA's development plans, be for the country as well as for the states.

The unpalatable truth for the Congress is that it is likely to bear the brunt of its unnecessary and adverserial stance, at least in poll-bound states such as Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, which are going to polls early in 2017.

B. Unconditional support to Modi

Even if PM Modi reaches out to Congress president Sonia Gandhi and former prime minister Manmohan Singh (may also include vice-president Rahul Gandhi) and invite them over "chai pe charcha" once again, the latter are unlikely to extend their whole-hearted support to the Centre.

If they do, they will commit a political harakiri.

The Congress cannot be expected to make an about turn at a time when 2017 will witness crucial Assembly elections and in many turbulent states such as Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa, the NDA is their main rival. Hence, this step is also ruled out for the Congress.

C. Walkout or critical support

The Congress is left with only two alternatives - it can either support the Bill after finding loopholes in it, criticising it and opposing the non-inclusion of 18 per cent cap. Being the original architect of the Bill, it can expect to take a moral high ground by presenting a convincing critique but voting in its favour at the end. Or, the maximum it can do is to walk out of the House after pointing out the shortcomings in the Bill or the lack, if any, of the Modi government to reach out to it.

The Congress cannot disown the Bill, which it had originally authored. It can only indulge in political posturing. It would be advisable for the Congress not to issue any whip so that it does not create any embarrassing situation for it.