What BJP winning UP elections means for Modi's India

Most exit polls, chiefly the India Today-Axis My India exit poll and Chanakya, have placed the BJP in the pole position in Uttar Pradesh Assembly, putting Akhilesh Yadav-Rahul Gandhi led SP-Congress alliance at a distant second, while the Mayawati-led BSP at a sorry third position.

The prediction that the BJP would get a landslide victory in the 403-seat Assembly, reaching as many as 251-270 seats according to India Today-Axis My India exit poll, however, has tremendous implications for the next two years in India politics, leading all the way up to the Lok Sabha elections of 2019.

The effects will show in not just successful electoral strategies which were deemed controversial for their ability to trigger communal polarisation, a significant UP Assembly victory for the BJP would be solely pegged on the Narendra Modi factor, to the extent that the talk of the “return of the Modi wave” would soon be the national narrative once again.

So what are going to the chief implications of a BJP splash in Uttar Pradesh? From increased strength in Rajya Sabha, to a stronger NDA, and a weakened opposition in disarray, there are many impacts that would be felt over the coming days and months.

Modi wave

This is the biggest and most important verdict of 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, which has mostly been read as a dress rehearsal for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It was in UP that Narendra Modi spent a huge amount of time in, spending the last three days of campaigning in Varanasi.

While some saw in it a sort of overt desperation, many found in that gesture a return to his parliamentary constituency, and reclaiming the place. Uttar Pradesh, with its seven phased polls and biggest state Assembly, would have been a make or break case for Modi, and his ability to deliver electoral victories for the BJP.

The drubbing he received in Bihar and Delhi notwithstanding, it seems that the proverbial Modi wave is back and with a fresh momentum. This should give both Narendra Modi and the BJP a significant bounce and a push towards the Lok Sabha 2019 elections.

Demonetisation gamble paid off

The UP Assembly election results would be direct validation of Modi’s demonetisation gamble, despite the many hardships it caused for the ordinary Indian. A big victory in UP would mean that despite the hurdles, Modi has successfully reclaimed his image as an anti-corruption crusader, who launched a “surgical strike against black money”.

This would embolden the Modi government to take even more drastic measures in the name of greater good in the months and years leading up to Lok Sabha 2019. What would those measures be? We can only say that their legal and ethical weaknesses would perhaps not prove to be a hurdle anymore, thanks to the soon-to-be revved up numbers in Rajya Sabha.

Numbers in Rajya Sabha

The BJP has 56 members in Rajya Sabha, a number that’s just 3 below the Congress’ strength at 59 members in the upper house. But the UP election outcome could tilt the scales in favour of the BJP.

At present BJP has just three members in Rajya Sabha from UP, even though the state sends 31 members to the upper house, the highest in the 245-member legislative body. The BJP MPs in Rajya Sabha are Manohar Parrikar, Shiv Pratap Shukla and Vinay Katiyar.

Katiyar is slated to retire by April 2018, while Parrikar’s membership is due till 2020, and Shukla’s till 2022. Naturally, with a majority in UP, the BJP would be able to send a handful of MPs to the Rajya Sabha, in addition to the new members who would be nominated in 2018, about 11.  

The new arithmetic could send the numbers well over 80 (10-11 nominated, and about 10 from UP) for the BJP in 2018, creating a fertile situation for the Modi government to pass legislations, which would have been otherwise opposed heavily by the Congress-tilted Rajya Sabha. At present, the Modi government is framing many of the controversial Bills as money bills to escape the Rajya Sabha scrutiny (for example the Aadhaar Act 2016, Income Tax (Amendment) Act 2016, etc).

Communal polarisation as the new normal

Increasingly, the highly unethical but possibly successful once again electoral strategy of triggering sustained, low-intensity communal polarisation by the BJP camp, is becoming the “new normal” in the electoral reality of India. The resistance – intellectual, ethical, legal and analytical – is being weakened as the election results repeatedly show that the strategies not only work, they are being embraced by the voters en masse, calling into question the very fundamentals of ethical electioneering.

With the BJP under Narendra Modi slowly and steadily inching towards painting India saffron, what is the future of the election laws and ethics when the voters repeatedly show a proclivity towards polarisation along religious lines? Moreover, how to develop a language of resistance and fight for ethical conduct of elections according to the norms set by the Election Commission of India, when ritual flouting of those very norms becomes acceptable and flagrant?

Whither to, Congress, AAP?

What would the opposition parties, such as the Congress, AAP, Samajwadi Party, etc be left with post UP Assembly verdict? While it may not be “Congress-mukt Bharat” yet, thanks to the positive predictions in Punjab and Manipur, which is not a mandate for Rahul Gandhi himself.

Both Punjab and Manipur would be credited to the stature and leadership of the state strongmen: a former and a sitting CM; therefore, Congress cannot peg these on Rahul’s political capital. In fact, a UP poor show would re-establish Rahul Gandhi as the ultimate political albatross, a deadweight that no other political party would like to experiment with in the near future.

What about Arvind Kejriwal? Would he be seen as a Modi-baiter who nevertheless has had his electoral heyday in Delhi, and who wouldn’t take it to any other state? Would AAP remain a Delhi-centric party only? 

What about liberalism?

How would a resurgent Modi wave combined with a strengthened position in Rajya Sabha, thanks to a big victory in Uttar Pradesh, impact the liberal resistance to the BJP-led NDA and the political shadow of the Sangh Parivar? Just like the electoral results in Delhi, Bihar had made the liberal camp robust, would a UP verdict rob it of its prowess?

What would be the new intellectual argument against the Narendra Modi government and how would that be translated into electoral wins? Because ultimately, only the elections can truly direct the destiny that awaits India.

Also read - Exit polls 2017: India is back to Modi wave, but no Congress-mukt Bharat yet