I could be wrong but BJP is not winning UP elections

We are just hours away from learning the outcome of the polls held in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur over the course of the last month. Though it includes a crucial state like Punjab, whose outcome will be a pointer to the future of the Grand Old Party of India (Congress), it is Uttar Pradesh that has everyone in a dilemma.

Among the many reasons, the prime reason would be that precisely nobody knows what the outcome would be. With the election being so long drawn out, even the poll analysts seem to have got themselves confused by the end, what with many of them choosing to retract from their initial positions and unwilling to commit one way or the other.

We also saw the exit polls coming out yesterday evening onwards overwhelmingly suggesting a victory for the BJP. If the exit polls indeed turn out to be right, it would mean that the effort put in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and going all out by camping for three days in his constituency of Varanasi paid off.

However, as someone who travelled around the state and observed the elections in the first three phases, I have some serious disagreements with the outcome suggested by the exit polls. Even before the exit polls, we saw many senior journalists and editors jumping the gun around the fifth phase, predicting a BJP victory piggybacking the still-intact popularity of the PM.

This reached a crescendo around the sixth phase of polling in eastern Uttar Pradesh even as the PM and more than a dozen of his Cabinet colleagues were camped in Varanasi and campaigning for the last phase.

It was quite bewildering as the last two phases in eastern Uttar Pradesh covered merely 89 seats. Having spent many days on the ground in the first couple of phases, which covered 140 seats, I actually witnessed a groundswell of support for the Samajwadi-Congress combine.

This was most evident in the second phase that seems to have been swept by the alliance. The third phase, which covered 69 seats, encompassed the Yadav strongholds in the Eatawah-Mainpuri belt and despite fears of sabotage by the disgruntled Shivpal Yadav camp, it didn’t reflect in the mood on the ground which seemed very favourable to the alliance.

You must realise that 209 seats out of the 403 seats had given their verdict by the third phase. While interacting with a source close to Congress strategist Prashant Kishor, I was told that the alliance is confident of winning more than 100 seats in the initial three phases.

By the way, another notable event on the day of the third phase of polling on February 19 was the speech of Modi in Fatehpur where he seemed to go back to the original plank of the Sangh Parivar by his now famous “shamshaan-kabristaan” speech that changed the complexion of this election.

Despite the attempts of BJP president Amit Shah on February 4 to give the campaign a communal colour, it wasn’t expected that Modi would go back to Hindutva after the massive victory in the Lok Sabha poll in 2014, riding on the wave of development.

It can reasonably be inferred that the BJP had by then been unsure of repeating that performance on the plank of “vikas" and felt compelled to rouse communal passions. But then again, the fate of more than 50 per cent of seats had been sealed on that day.

The BJP, which won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 by winning a whopping 42 per cent of the popular vote, seemed jittery and calculated that the incremental votes they received in that election wasn't forthcoming anymore.

A consolidation in favour of the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, with a credible face in CM Akhilesh Yadav, who seemed unaffected by anti-incumbency, must have forced the BJP to recalibrate their approach.

In the fourth phase that covered most of the Bundelkhand region, we also saw the resurgence of the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party that had begun quite well in the first phase in four-cornered contests in western Uttar Pradesh.

Despite less than great performances in the last four phases, the SP-Congress alliance should still emerge as the best performer and the largest combine when the results are declared tomorrow. Apart from the ground realities, what also favours them is sheer arithmetic.

Even in their worst performance in 2014, the SP and Congress combine had won 30 per cent of the popular votes. And in a tight three-cornered contest, a vote share of 33-35 per cent would probably decide the winner. In 2007, Mayawati got a clear mandate of 206 seats with a 30 per cent vote share and in 2012, the Samajwadi party won 220 seats with a mere 29 per cent.

As for those predicting a repeat 2014 performance by the BJP, it is highly unlikely. The law of diminishing returns should surely come in the way of the Modi magic. Moreover, the incremental votes they gained in 2014 would surely have been scattered in all directions.

Take for example the case of Jats. The BJP won the state in 2014 primarily by sweeping western Uttar Pradesh that has a huge concentration of Jats. However, the community has been quite vocal about their disenchantment with the party and have vowed to vote against them.

A huge section of the Dalits that voted for Modi in 2014 should also go back to Mayawati as it is an Assembly election to choose the CM and not a parliamentary poll.

I am not a psephologist. But I just couldn’t accept the exit polls, on top of the predictions by many senior journalists that seemed to be based on shallow analyses and clichéd premises. It somehow seemed they were all in a hurry to call it.

In a few hours, we will definitely know the outcome of this election and then it is over to post-poll scenarios and analyses which should be slightly more engaging than the pre-poll ones.

Also read: Why we cannot rule out an SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh