Exit Polls Results: The hits and misses of Indian exit polls!

The accuracy of exit polls has always been a point of contention. The most accurate exit polls were in 2014 — when all survey agencies predicted a clear majority for BJP, which eventually ended up absolutely right in that case.

When they got it right:

1996: The exit poll got their prediction for a fractured mandate correct, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the largest party in the Lok Sabha then, formed the government.

Exit polls got it right when Atal Bihari Vajpayee came to power in 1999. (Photo: PTI)

1998: Most of the surveys showed the BJP-led NDA emerging as a clear favourite — but falling short of the majority mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. The range varied from 214 to 249 for the NDA while the Congress-led alliance was predicted to win 145-164 seats. The NDA won 252 while the Congress got 166 seats in the Lok Sabha election in 1998.

1999: With BJP needing a clear majority to win the elections, the exit polls predicted a victory for the NDA government — and that’s what came to be. The election results brought Vajpayee's NDA a majority in India's 545-seat Lok Sabha, with 299 of the 537 seats.

All exit polls showed a clear majority for Modi in 2014, and they got it right. (Photo: PTI)

2014: With a strong wave going against Congress and Narendra Modi emerging as the biggest candidate, all exit polls showed a clear majority for a BJP-led government — which they got. In fact, the figures which most of the polls predicted were near the target which BJP got.

When they got it wrong:

2004: Almost all media organisations had predicted Atal Bihari Vajpayee to come back to power. The BJP was predicted to get 230-270 seats; in reality, they got 138. Congress on the other hand, which was predicted to lose the elections, ended up forming the government.

Exit polls predicted a hung Parliament in 2009 — but Manmohan Singh came to power. (Photo: PTI)

2009: In 2009, most opinion and exit polls predicted a hung Parliament — but the Congress emerged as the biggest party with over 200 seats and formed a stable government on its own.

So which is the most reliable exit poll?

Of the dozens of post-poll surveys thrown at you between now and May 23, the India Today-Axis My India post-poll survey is considered the most accurate. Of all the elections that took place between 2013 and 2019, India Today-Axis My India post-poll surveys have given the correct predictions — in 95% cases.

Since 2013, Axis My India has conducted 36 post-poll surveys — out of which 34 have predicted the correct leading party/alliance.

Also read: Phase 7 Face-Offs: Five big Lok Sabha fights to watch out for this Sunday!