Modi will see fractured Opposition in 2019

What the May 19 Assembly election results of four states have proved is that several regional players have emerged stronger now. As a result of this, the NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will face a fractured Opposition in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. With the Congress becoming weaker by getting confined to just six states and several regional players getting stronger, unity will evade the Opposition. This will make the job of the BJP-led NDA easier, if not a cakewalk.

As matters stand today, neither the Congress nor the UPA led by it is in a position to pose any serious challenge to the BJP. While the NDA is in power in 12 states (which send 240 of the 543 MPs to the Lok Sabha), the UPA has shrunk to just seven states, and except for Karnataka and Bihar, the others are comparatively smaller states. All put together, they send just 84 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

In such a situation, though the Congress may agree to form a wider coalition with the regional parties, an agreement with them will evade it on the issue of the prime ministerial candidate. The Congress will never support any candidate from any other party as the prime minister if it enters into a pre-poll alliance. 

For instance, the Congress has already rejected the offer of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to head a coalition of non-BJP parties. The Bihar unit of the grand old party has vociferously opposed any attempt by Nitish to project himself as the prime ministerial face.

On the other hand, a Congress prime ministerial candidate will not be acceptable to the regional parties which, in themselves, have become quite strong and their leaders see themselves as potential candidates. They will reject Rahul Gandhi as their prime ministerial candidate as the Congress has been dwindling under his de facto leadership.

For instance, both West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her Tamil Nadu counterpart J Jayalalithaa have emerged stronger after retaining power for the second consecutive term. There are 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal and 39 in Tamil Nadu and, hence, both Mamata and Jayalalithaa will become more assertive. Neither of the two will accept the leadership of Rahul. On the contrary, they are being viewed as the strongest challengers of Modi. After results of the Assembly elections in four states and one Union Territory were announced on May 19, there were two separate reports in DailyO highlighting this fact - "Mamata Banerjee looks the strongest candidate to take on Modi in 2019" and "Why I see Jayalalithaa versus Modi in 2019".

Besides, we already have Nitish who has thrown in the gauntlet. He declared that "all non-BJP parties will have to come together if we have to defeat them" because "separate contests will not work" in the next Lok Sabha elections. His call for an RSS-free India and his candidature for the prime ministerial post have been backed by his friend-turned-foe-turned-friend and Rashtriya Janata Dal supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav. Incidentally, Bihar sends a considerable 40 MPs to the Lower House.

Though AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal personally denies it, all know that the Delhi chief minister also nurses prime ministerial ambitions for long. To fulfil his ambition, he had contested against Modi in Varanasi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, though he lost by a massive margin and had to forfeit his security deposit. His party fielded several candidates but only four won seats in those elections, all from Punjab.

Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav will throw his hat in the ring for the prime minister's  chair if his son Akhilesh Yadav's government in Uttar Pradesh romps home to victory in the 2017 Assembly elections. In case Akhilesh is defeated by the BSP, then Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati will become a contender for the prime minister's post. Uttar Pradesh is the most important state as it has the maximum number of seats in the Lok Sabha - 80.

As against these loud and high profile politicians, the four-term Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik is known as a silent and efficient administrator. He is the longest serving chief minister of Odisha, occupying the chair since March 2000. Odisha has only 21 seats in the Lower House.

Unlike others in the Opposition, he has never directly or indirectly expressed his desire to become the prime minister but he is tipped by political pundits as the dark horse. With a number of contenders for the prime minister's post increasing, there is a bleak possibility of an Opposition unity on the issue. These opposition leaders are unlikely to succeed in accepting one among them as the prime ministerial face.

Alternatively, they may form a front and leave the question of a prime ministerial face after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. That will send a message of Opposition disunity among the voters. Also, a front without a prime ministerial candidate will be weak against the BJP-led NDA with Modi as their leader.

As months and years pass and 2019 approaches, there will be more crevices in the so-called Opposition unity over the issue of the prime ministerial post. And, finally, the Opposition will be seen fighting separately, helping only the NDA.