Achhe din at last, Modi is dragging India to barter system times

Housewives in traditional Indian families are in the habit of saving small amounts of money, often taken from their husbands' earnings. The savings generally aim at serving the family during rainy days, or the "bure din".

Call it fate or coincidence, the poor homemakers are being forced to break their secret piggybanks, largely concealed in daal ka dabbas in kitchens, at a time when the government promised "achhe din".

PM Narendra Modi’s war against black money is proving to be a "surgical strike" - but mainly on the poor. Amid confusion over "achhe din" and "bure din", as of now, it’s a nationwide din. While the fate of black money is uncertain, at least three poor people have died so far.

The first reported victim was Tirtharaji, a 40-year-old washerwoman in Gorakhpur. Carrying two notes of Rs 1,000 denomination, she died allegedly due to shock when she learnt that banks will not accept her money. 

But then, how many Indians transact through banks? Estimates suggest that in India, there are a total of 310 million savings bank accounts. But given the number of multiple accounts, the total number of individual saving accounts may not be more than 200 million.

This means that 83 per cent of the population does not have access to bank accounts, despite the Modi government's record-breaking feat of getting opened over 220 million accounts under the Jan Dhan Yojana since its launch on August 15, 2014.

Banking is still greek to the majority of Indians. In the coming days, the nation might get to hear some more heart-wrenching stories, wherein a typical drunkard husband beat his wife to death on discovering that she had saved over Rs 10,000 in a daal ka dabba for the marriage of their daughter, than having offered him this money for booze.

While the poor are bearing the brunt, what about those with illegal money, who were supposedly the main target of this war against black money?

In its 2014 election manifesto, the BJP had promised to get back black money stashed in foreign banks. Over two years on, the promise continues to be fresh on the official website of senior BJP leader and Union minister Ananth Kumar.

“Narendra Modiji has said that if BJP is voted to power at the Centre, it will frame legislation to bring back black money stashed away in foreign banks. The BJP has always been rallying behind the cause of bringing back black money stashed away in foreign banks. In 2011, under the leadership of Shri Advaniji, the Jan Chetna Yatra was taken out across the country to raise voice against this very issue,” reads the message to the people on the site Ananth.org.

If the Modi government has failed to bring back even a penny from such accounts abroad, does it mean demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes will compensate the failure, if not necessarily hide it?

Somebody tell the government that not all black money is cash, necessarily in denominations of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000. In India, investments in real estate are equally shady. And then come the investments in gold.

Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst, precious metals demand, GFMS, Thomson Reuters, recently said: “The move will potentially create a surge in demand for gold jewellery for the next few days while backdated bills would be made to show the transaction as genuine.”

But it doesn’t mean the government will impose a ban on gold, and we will end up seeing our women wearing cast iron bangles, awkwardly resembling handcuffs.

The problem with Modi is that he believes in treating the symptoms, not the cause.

Black money is a symptom of corruption, which India has been neck deep into, and something seen as the legacy of the British rule. Unless the cause of the disease is addressed, treatments tend to be cosmetic.

Immediately after banning the currency notes, Modi flew to Japan asking the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to release currency notes of Rs 2,000 denomination.

Looking Tokyo, talking London. In a country where the Rs 1,000 note was a threat to national security as terrorists could be trading it, the government has doubled the threat perception by doubling the denomination of the biggest note. 

In his address to the nation, the PM pleaded in favour of his move, saying now onwards banks would regulate the dispersal of such notes, as if the RBI had been in slumber since 1947.

Given the uncertainty over savings in cash, and wild apprehensions of a ban on gold, poor people would love to invest in daal, where “arhar Modi” would be a slogan of pride. But then, the daal ka dabba is no more able to keep a secret.

Amid unfolding secrets, if someday noted economist and former governor RBI Raghuram Rajan writes a memoir, his debate with the government over ban on high denomination notes may be a chapter of humour.

There may even be mention of “one Amit Shah” who wanted his party’s funding in Rs 100 denomination to be an economic weapon for the Uttar Pradesh elections.

In Kashmir, on the other hand, the elderly would traditionally save money, a few thousand bucks, in their almirah or chawal ka dabba, for expenses of their funeral. Now such burials may be subject to working days of banks.

In a country where the Rs 100 note is not enough to buy daal for one-time meal, there can be no limit to wildest imagination. Modi has just proved that.

But then some good news for the Muslims. Those who were upset with the renaming of Aurangzeb Road in the national capital should be happy that Red Fort, the landmark constructed by Mughal emperor Shah Jahan, is now part of Indian currency: mera desh badal raha hai, aagay badh raha hai!

Also read: Will Modi's black money-mukt Bharat make Indians poorer?