Dainik Jagran's ‘exit poll’ favouring BJP in UP polls is flagrant violation of law

A report by Dainik Jagran, since taken down, showing an exit poll with the BJP in the lead in Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh is really the last nail on the coffin of the party’s electoral ambition in India’s most populous state, with the largest Assembly seats, at 403.

In clear defiance of the Election Commission order and model code of conduct, the Jagran group’s botched attempt to favour the ruling party at the Centre, which has been eyeing the crucial UP Assembly polls as its first step to consolidating 2019 general elections, is not just a misstep, it’s blatant violation of law.

With six phases of the seven-phase UP Assembly polls still to go, and with ground reports in other media outlets showing voters talking of either the SP-Congress alliance, or Mayawati’s sway, it is obvious that the Jagran report is meant to be a last-minute attempt to sway votes in favour of the BJP.

It must be said that Dainik Jagran is the largest circulating Hindi language daily in India and it carrying an exit poll shows extreme disdain towards the rule of law. The results of the exit poll soon after polling for 73 seats in first phase of UP Assembly polls that was held on February 11, showed the BJP in the lead, with the BSP coming in second, the SP-Congress alliance lagging behind, in a dismal third position.

The very fact that an exit poll – with its voter feedback during an ongoing election – a banned exercise by itself was conducted, showed how desperate the ruling party at the Centre is to capture UP.

As per Section 126 A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission “prohibits the conduct of any exit polls and publishing of their results for the elections that will be held between February 4 and March 8.” The ban on exit polls, since challenged earlier this month, has been upheld by Bombay High Court.

Exit polls not only influence voters to herd towards the party they think is winning already, for a relative securer future with less communal incidents after the polls, they also tend to prevent voters from picking their choice of candidate out of fear that in case the candidate is defeated but the party wins the Assembly polls, those responsible for defeating a candidate would face immense threats to life and bearings under the new government.

This cycle of vicious vendetta which exit polls perpetuate has been rightly stalled to some extent by the banning of this insidious exercise in dissuading voters away from who they think they really want to vote for.

However, Jagran group’s exit poll – presenting a survey of a voter sample comprising about 5,700 people across 38 Assembly seats in west UP – is skewed in favour of a particular political party. This, when no official counting has begun, or can begin before all the phases are over, is not just distasteful, but illegal to the last letter.

It is extremely unfortunate that the ruling party and its media supporters have really no concern for the rule of law which has been established after much deliberation and to allow democracy to take its own course. Time and again, opinion polls have yielded grossly misleading results, showing that elections in India are not a matter of cold math based on just caste or religious calculations, but also include a heavy dose of emotions.

While the Election Commission has sought a report on the Dainik Jagran stunt, we must ask what prompted the newspaper to publish something in flagrant disregard of the law. Is the Jagran group not aware of the penalties of publishing an exit poll? Or did it just go ahead with it anyway, either under pressure or to secure future prospects with the ruling party at the Centre?

Unless the EC gives out an exemplary punishment and teaches Jagran group a lesson after thorough investigation into what went on behind the scenes, and whether the party shown favourably has promised remunerations, if any, more media houses will not think twice before committing this grave mistake, that too knowingly.

Dainik Jagran is wrong and EC must hold it accountable.

Also read: Can Akhilesh-Rahul alliance trump Modi-fied BJP in UP elections?

Watch: