Losing states will collapse Congress party from within

Election season has kicked off. Opinion polls project a Left front (LDF) win over the incumbent Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala. That would deprive the Congress of a government in all five southern states bar Karnataka.

Beset by corruption and sloth, chief minister Siddaramaiah's Karnataka may also fall at the next Assembly poll due in 2018. The news from Tamil Nadu isn't much better. Opinion polls project chief minister J Jayalalithaa's AIADMK defying anti-incumbency to break Tamil Nadu's historic electoral cycle of alternating between the two major Dravidian parties every five years. As the DMK's alliance partner in the state, the Congress is set to remain in political wilderness in Tamil Nadu.

Corruption

In West Bengal, the Congress' fair-weather partner, the Left front, is projected to do better than in 2011 but will likely still lose to the Teflon-coated Mamata Banerjee. The Trinamool Congress, despite facing serious charges of corruption, could win a second term, though with a reduced majority.

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Losing Kerala and being on the losing side in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal may not be the end of the Congress' problems. It faces a strong challenge from the BJP in Assam. Opinion polls differ widely on the outcome. An ABP TV poll projects a comfortable win for the BJP. Other polls show the BJP and the Congress neck and neck, with the AIUDF likely to play kingmaker.

If the Congress loses Kerala and Assam and is on the receiving end in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal along with its alliance partners, the party's national footprint will shrink significantly. With Arunachal Pradesh in the hands of rebel Congress chief minister Kalikho Pul and the Harish Rawat-led Congress government in Uttarakhand awaiting benediction by the court, that footprint could shrink further. Himachal Pradesh might be next in line.

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has new incriminating evidence of corruption against Congress chief minister Virbhadra Singh. Unrest too is bubbling in Manipur. The outcome of these small and large political fires could leave the Congress singed and electorally neutered.

Consider a likely scenario in 2018 following a potential defeat in Karnataka, rebellion in Manipur and setbacks in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Also read - What Congress must do to win Manipur polls in 2017

The Congress would then be left without a single major state government. Of India's 29 states and seven Union Territories, it would be in government (on its own or in alliance with a partner) in just Meghalaya and Mizoram.

The BJP though shouldn't exult too soon. It faces challenges of its own in 2017. It could lose Punjab (in alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal). In Gujarat it will be lucky to hold on to power. The Patidar revolt and anti-incumbency could make Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state Assembly election in December 2017 the real semi-final before the Lok Sabha poll in May 2019.

Semi-final

Before that will be the other semi-final in Uttar Pradesh. Despite its social engineering, and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav's lawless and feckless governance, the BJP is unlikely to make much headway. Mayawati's BSP is set to be the main beneficiary and could win a comfortable majority. The BJP's victory in 71 out of 80 parliamentary seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha election will count for nothing in an Assembly poll.

Despite a five-cornered fight (and Asaduddin Owaisi's vote-splitting entry), the BJP will struggle to match the SP for second place. The Congress will be relegated to an also-ran.

Also read - Assam polls: BJP's rise has roots in Nehru's historical blunder

Trouble could be brewing for the BJP in Maharashtra as well. Ally Shiv Sena may go it alone in the 2017 BMC civic poll. Depending on the outcome, a mid-term poll in Maharashtra can't be ruled out.

However, the real possibility that by 2018 the Congress could have governments in just two states, Meghalaya and Mizoram, means that Sonia Gandhi would have succeeded in reducing the party to a tiny rump in her 20 years as Congress president.

Also read - Making sense of Arunachal Pradesh political crisis

Why have things come to such a pass? The short answer: dynastic politics. When you pass power from mother to son, feudalism trumps merit. Sonia and Rahul Gandhi should examine the leaders who win elections in today's India.

Dynasty

Not one of them promotes dynasty. Narendra Modi has no children. Nor do Jayalalithaa, Mayawati or Mamata. In contrast, those who build mini-dynasties in states patterned on the Congress model are likely to be shown the door in Himachal (Virbhadra), Uttarakhand (Rawat), Uttar Pradesh (Akhilesh) and Assam (Gogoi).

Any attempt by Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje to foist her son on the electorate will also rebound. The same applies to Gujarat chief minister Anandiben Patel and her ambitious daughter Anar. In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and other BJP-governed states, the slightest hint of dynasty and nepotism will be met with future electoral defeat.

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Modi has rightly sidelined Varun Gandhi. One Gandhi (Maneka) in the Cabinet is enough. He must resist pressure to allow dynasty to creep into the middle ranks of the BJP.

The scramble for Rajya Sabha seats by the children of Lalu Prasad and the continuing patronage by DMK leader M Karunanidhi of his son Stalin as a future chief minister will bring diminishing returns.

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As the Congress shrinks, so will its funds. The Gandhis themselves may not be personally short of money (quite the contrary) but the party's ability to fund elections is already under strain.

It is not only the Gandhi name but the family's ability to rustle up funds that has kept Congress leaders glued to the party. As the glue comes unstuck, there will be a stampede for the door.

(Courtesy of Mail Today.)