Why Congress is declining

What has happened to the Congress? The party of the national movement and the centrepiece of the Indian political system, according to acclaimed political scientist Rajni Kothari, seems to have lost its way. In retrospect, it seems the Congress made some bad choices.

Article 39(c) of the Constitution directs the State to ensure that "the operation of the economic system does not result in the concentration of wealth and means of production to the common detriment". Article 39(d) directs the State to make sure that "the health and strength of workers, men and women, and the tender age of children are not abused and that citizens are not forced by economic necessity to enter avocations unsuited to their age or strength".

Though these directive principles are not binding, they are a clear direction to the State.

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Jawaharlal Nehru, while talking of "a socialist pattern of society", did little about it. The public sector that he encouraged was not really "public" since bureaucrats, private sector managers, and others of that ilk dominated the management of public sector institutions.

The Industrial Licensing Policy Inquiry Committee (ILPIC) which studied industrial licensing policies during the second and third plan periods, clearly stated that the industrial policy system had led to the further growth of existing monopolies.

It found that 52.5 per cent of industrial credit had gone to monopolies, in violation of the Constitution and Congress policy statement.

This was not reversed during Indira Gandhi's "garibi hatao" campaign and rule.

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As the Union finance minister in 1991, Manmohan Singh, who had just finished his radical monograph for the South Commission, "The Challenge to the South", that documented the exploitation of the global south by the advanced capitalist countries, jettisoned what was left of the Congress' "socialistic policies'.

Major controls on capital including foreign capital were removed. Pro-people policies were reduced to slogans. What the then prime minister PV Narasimha Rao forgot was that you cannot prop up the poor and lower middle classes while giving generous benefits to the rich and super rich. Thus systematically, the class divide widened, and the support of the weaker sections including the minorities diminished.

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The Congress was also slow to recognise and appreciate the rise of the backward classes. From 1990 onwards, it opposed the Mandal Commission. This was a terrible mistake, but a pointer to the decline of the party's organic links with the lower castes and the growing disaffection among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits and adivasis.

This led to the rise of parties like the Samajwadi Party, BSP, JD(U), RJD and others. With their political base eroded, the Congress' mobilisation strategy began to deteriorate and lose its ability to increase its strength on the ground. Allies began to drive hard bargains, and its intellectual support was scattered. Congress president Sonia Gandhi, despite major efforts by her confidantes, was unable to galvanise a new generation of leaders, starting with Rahul Gandhi.

The Congress is now a declining party. Many of its backers have switched to the Narendra Modi-led BJP with the leader exhibiting a charisma that no other can match. But what will be the major difference that the Congress can produce in its economic policy that can wean the poor away from the BJP?

Unlike the Congress, Modi's propaganda machine is very strong, his support from the media overwhelming. His middle class support is still solid after more than two years of his rule. To pose a challenge, the Congress will have to reinvent itself, learn from its past and go back to the backward class-poor/lower middle class/ middle class and capitalist alliance. The backward class-minority alliance is formidable but it will face ruthless opposition from the ruling NDA, playing the communal card. Is the Congress ready for such a challenge?