Why Shivraj Singh Chouhan's many failures may still not be enough for Congress to win MP
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power in 2003 under the leadership of Uma Bharti, replacing the 10-year-old Digvijay Singh-led Congress government. The reasons of this succession were loud and clear: the state of Madhya Pradesh was “underdeveloped” to an extent that even international bodies like UNDP had started ranking the state with countries like Rwanda, Senegal and Madagascar in their Human Development Index. Every single thing from basic infrastructure to assurance of subsistence for the deprived went missing. The anti-incumbency was such that when the state went for polling, the Congress could merely secure 38 seats as opposed to the BJP which won 178 seats out of the 230 assemblies that went to polls.
The leadership of the BJP after the formation of government saw various ups and downs in the first two years, as Uma Bharti was forced to resign after her alleged involvement in the 1994 Hubli riots and later Babulal Gaur who claimed he was “forced to resign” to make way for Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
While a “BIMARU” Madhya Pradesh did start its journey on the path of development under Shivraj, did Shivraj actually succeed in fulfilling his tall list of promises?
From where he picked, the Chief Minister did succeed in providing power supply, built road networks, introduced schemes like the Ladli Yojna etc., retain tourism and brought industries to the state. However, all is not well in Shivraj’s Madhya Pradesh. The state under his leadership has witnessed the worst and has seen the darker side of politics.
The most significant issues at the centre are:
Farmer’s issue: “Kisan ka beta” Shivraj has not only denied but has also failed to acknowledge the problems faced by farmers. He only used farmers as a tool for gaining electoral votes, even as he failed to address their issues like that of loan waiver, support prices. In the last ten years alone, more than 11,000 farmers have committed suicide. The intentions of this government became crystal clear last year, when the Madhya Pradesh police opened fire on farmers in Mandsaur, who were protesting against the government. A Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme — the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana — too has been rife with flaws and irregularities.
In the upcoming assembly elections, farmers’ crisis will be one of the most important issues upon which the fate of next party in power in Madhya Pradesh rests.
Law and Order: Madhya Pradesh under the BJP rule has only been volatile. Not only has the crime rate risen, but closer to elections the atmosphere in general has been intense. The government has botched up promises to protect the women, children, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (SC/STs) in the state. In fact, in 2017, according to National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, MP had the sharpest increase in crimes against SC/STs.
The failure of law and order of the state can certainly be attributed to the ruling government.
The increasing crime rate in Madhya Pradesh, specifically against women and SC/STs, has placed the state at the top of the table. Perhaps, the only protection that the women, girl children and SC/STs have is hoardings announcing schemes — the reality, of course, tells a different tale.
Corruption: In Ujjain, the Simhastha Kumbh Mela was not spared the shadow of alleged corruption. While the Congress alleged a Rs 1500 crore scam, the government, in general, has been accused of overspending even on basic necessities at the Kumbh.
The Shivraj government is still facing heat over the Vyapam scam, where not only were frauds given seats in medical colleges but exams like that for SSC was dented as well. The deaths of both accusers as well as whistleblowers in Vyapam must also be noted — both sides have witnessed the death of more than 45 people so far.
The arrests in the case have also put the government and the bureaucracy in the dock. So far, the Supreme Court has cancelled degrees of 634 doctors and The CBI has charge-sheeted 592, but Shivraj and his government are yet to take any significant action.
The Shivraj government’s indifference towards offering the state’s youth a better future became more evident after the scholarship scam came into light — funds allocated for scholarship of tribal students were allegedly siphoned off. While the scam was a multi-crore scam, the exact amount is yet to be announced even though the scam came to light in 2013.
The latest scam that shook the state was the e-tender scam, where the online procurement platform of the Madhya Pradesh government was allegedly manipulated to favour a select few private companies. Suspected to have been going on for years now, it was exposed only in May this year when bidding for contracts was underway for the Madhya Pradesh Jal Nigam. The scam is estimated to be worth more than Rs 3000 crore.
Narmada Issue: The Sardar Sarovar Project has been an issue central to the political and social dynamics of Madhya Pradesh. While the state governments of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat plead benefits if the project came to fruition, the social, environmental and rehabilitation cost — an issue which was clearly ignored — has been the epicentre of the Narmada protests.
Often referred to as the lifeline of the state, the Narmada River has been at the centre stage after Shivraj Singh’s five-month-long Narmada Seva Yatra (Namami Devi Narmade) that lasted from December, 2016 to May, 2017.
The amount which was spent on this “yatra” along with the promises made around the Narmada River has also been questioned. From state of records to saplings being planted, to illegal sand mining and environmental damage, every issue has been highlighted, specifically by spiritual leaders in Madhya Pradesh.
The fear of “Narmada Ghotala Yatra” (a yatra to be lead by the spiritual heads) was such that the CM gave five spiritual heads Minister of State status.
Public welfare: The Shivraj government has failed in assuring and working towards the welfare of the people. While the rate of malnutrition is increasing in the state, the sex ratio and infant mortality rate, on the other hand, are on the decline.
As an underdeveloped state with a large percentage of tribal population, the state government chose not to identify and realise the needs of the community. The BJP government in Madhya Pradesh has lacked in providing employment to the youth, and the declining literacy rate of the state is enough to realise what vision the chief minister and his cabinet have for the state.
The assurances of development have been nothing but a chimera; the state of Madhya Pradesh under Shivraj has not been able to fulfil the needs or provide physical development, economic development, social development and even cultural development.
Smart Cities, for instance, have only brought money to the state but the state has chosen not to develop at all. Four years and massive funding have amounted to absolutely nothing.
Does the CM not owe an apology to the people of MP who put their faith in him for 12 years, when not even one section of the society can claim to be benefitted by this government
Challenges for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh
While the problems with and the anger against the leadership of Shivraj and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh are immense, what has the Opposition done to win the battle of 2018?
The Indian National Congress is the single largest Opposition party in Madhya Pradesh and therefore the biggest threat to the BJP. It wouldn’t be wrong to say that the blunders committed by the BJP have given the Congress ample opportunities to regain the trust of people in the state, but so far, it has all been in vain. While Shivraj stands tall, as does the BJP — because they have a united front — the Congress has lacked miserably in putting up a united face.
There are primarily three major factions and two or three regional factions within the Congress in Madhya Pradesh. The first faction is led by Digvijay Singh, who not only has a great hold in the Chambal region, but owing to this Chief Ministerial term, is a known face across the state. The second in line is Jyotiraditya Scindia, who rules the Chambal region as well. Due to his dynamic term with the UPA-1 and 2 and with the badge of royal political dynasty, Scindia too is a known face in the state. The third faction is that of Kamal Nath, who has been largely known for his national politics. At the state level Kamal Nath has not been known beyond Chhindwara.
The other regional factions include that of Arun Yadav (Ex-PCC chief), Ajay Singh (CLP leader) and Jitu Patwari (Indian Youth Congress face for Madhya Pradesh). All of them together count for their separate vote banks which have now become a trouble spot for Congress in the state, as the politics that revolves around these factions is complex.
The existing factions within the Congress have not only damaged the party but have been the primary reason for the failure of the party to gain support within the state. The region-wise polarisation has reduced the authenticity of the grand-old Congress party in the state. With such massive issues and the people’s anger to bank on and fight for, the Congress is yet to fill in the gap and win the trust of the people before it goes to vote.
The absence of a leadership — who could become the voice of entire Madhya Pradesh — and the inability of the Congress to build a leader with mass appeal beyond their regions in the last 15 years is troublesome for the grand old party.
Despite a very strong anti-incumbency, weak organisational structure of the Congress has made an election with clear choices, one of the most difficult ones. Not only has the Congress been unable to deal with the backlash of the government under Digvijay Singh, but it has also failed to be a good Opposition party in the state.
Despite the shortcomings of Digvijay Singh-led government, he still has a major influence and role to play in the existing state elections. The fact that he is being sidelined is not a good sign for the Congress party — and could inflict potential damage on the party as they march towards polling in November.
The problems for Congress don’t end there. The real problem would begin once the party starts handing out tickets to its potential candidates. The process of ticket distribution has been very debatable and difficult for the party; for it fails to strike the right balance and has often, in this process, lost party workers, members and leaders.
Despite being out of power for 15 years, the party has delayed its campaign; one that became visible only six months ahead of the elections. The party may be trying its level best to appease its Hindu voters and Hindu population of Madhya Pradesh through campaigns like Ram Van Gaman Path Yatra and extensive campaigning by Rahul Gandhi — their promises are noteworthy — but all efforts that the party takes now are either too little or too late.
The challenge for the Congress and the Opposition also lies in gaining the trust of first-time voters, who have not witnessed the power and term of any other party but the BJP. The women voters, the trading class and the tribal folk are again, other significant sections who seek a lot from the Opposition. But the Opposition is yet to put on its “game-face”.
The Madhya Pradesh assembly elections in 2018, is a make-or-break situation for the Congress in the state. The stronghold of the party in the rural areas, majorly among the backward classes, has declined and alongside the growing popularity of the BJP in the state. The Congress, thus, has to bring its own supporters back. It also has to win over neutral voters.
It is both disturbing as well as surprising to the see that the Congress is still unprepared to win back the trust of the people and power from the BJP. The weakness of the Opposition can be gauged from instances like calls for fake voters in the voters list; in this case the Opposition itself has not been able to sustain and stick to its allegations— they lost the legal battle in the Courts. The BJP, therefore, has an edge over the organisationally-weak Congress.
The troubles for Congress are also not limited to just their scores with BJP or internal problems — it also has to do with how its partners from Mahagathbandhan are treating the grand old party in the assembly politics.
With Mayawati (BSP) parting ways first and Akhilesh Yadav (SP) and Sharad Pawar (NCP) following suit, the road to 2019 for the Congress has not been easy.
And, one should not underestimate the power of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the election strategy of Amit Shah. Both have been proven in the past in Gujarat as well as Karnataka. While the Congress posed a commendable challenge to the BJP, and even seemed to garner the favour of voters, Modi’s rhetoric in the last 10 days before polling changed the scenario and made it rather difficult for the Congress to sustain their momentum.
While Rajasthan seems favourable for the Congress, for the BJP, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are well within the limits of the current ruling party, despite severe anti-incumbency against their respective state governments. Especially in the case of Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj is still the first choice as chief minister and Shivraj and Modi together are prepared to woo the voters of the state.
Despite flaws, the ruling government is still going strong because the Opposition is failing to give its voters a chance to believe in them. The fate of Madhya Pradesh will be sealed on November 28, yet the chasm from both ends is worth people’s attention and concern!
Also read: Why Shiv Sena, a supporter of hard Hindutva, is criticising BJP over Hindutva