China-US relations face turbulence in Chinese Year of the Rooster

With Donald Trump becoming US president, US-China relations may see turbulent times ahead, though the Chinese year of the Rooster - which began on January 28 - signifies confidence according to tradition.

True to belief, the past Chinese year of the Monkey has proved to be troublesome and chaotic for Beijing's relations with Washington D.C.

Trump's noisy entry at the helm of American power, living up to the grand old party's symbol of the elephant trampling the orderly ways of the US government is sure to disturb China's "harmonious world".

President Trump has started the year of the Rooster with agressive confidence on all fronts to fulfil his promise to "make America great again".

In his inaugural address, he said, "from this day forward, it's going to be only America first, America first. Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families...We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American."

His speeches and actions have caused unease across the globe and more so in China and its trading community as the contours of the emerging US policy are not clear.

Jack Ma, the founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, who had met Trump earlier this month, found him to be "open-minded".

Speaking at Davos 2017, Ma said they had discussed about small business, agriculture and trade between China and the US, with specific focus on how to create a million jobs in small business over the next five years.

Ma said "we should give Trump some more time...He's willing to listen."

However, Jack Ma address at Beijing on January 27 seemed to be more realistic about China-US relations. He said, despite an "overall optimistic" outlook on trade between the two economic giants, conflicts "will definitely be there".

Ma warned of a big trade war between China and the US, if conflicts between them are not dealt with properly.

China's uncertainty about Trump's moves on the strategic front was reflected in a recent comment of a PLA official, who told South China Morning Post that the US re-balancing its deployments in the Asia-Pacific region, and its push to arm South Korea with THAAD missile defence systems were provocative "hotspots getting closer to ignition."

He had good reasons to be worried because during former US president Barack Obama's watch, China had successfully managed to flex its military muscles to buttress its territorial claims in the South China Sea in the face of the US naval power in the Asia-Pacific.

China also managed to threaten the durability of the US' powerful strategic and trade alliances built over the years with key Asia-Pacific powers like Japan, South Korea, Australia and ASEAN.

China has successfully lured even traditional US allies like the Philippines to avoid confrontation over territorial disputes and pacified regional challengers like Vietnam wooed by the US - as well as imposed caution on ASEAN countries.

This had frustrated the US under Obama's watch as it had struggled to come to terms with China's unimpeded progress on other fronts of the power game.

China was already disturbed with Trump's actions, such as taking a congratulatory phone call from the Taiwan president soon after his election as well as the comments of his defence secretary General "Mad dog" Mattis on the need for the US to reaffirm its commitment to Taiwan as they threaten China's core interests.

On the other hand, Trump's call to rework US' strategic defence agreements with traditional allies like Japan and the NATO powers has introduced uncertainty not only in the minds of US' pacific allies like Japan but also China.

Under President Xi Jinping's leadership, China's ambitious westward bound One Belt, One Road (OBOR) infrastructure initiative has continued to make progress, despite concerns about economic viability and opaqueness.

The OBOR project supported by 64 nations across three continents is helping China shape new strategic paradigms and alignments in Central Asia and South Asia.

These are increasingly threatening to marginalise American influence in these regions.

In contrast, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the US' ambitious but controversial trade initiative to challenge China's growth as a global economic giant has ended in a limbo after the US was unable to ratify it.

China should be happy that president Trump has withdrawn from the TPP on January 23 as it could end American plans to sign an agreement with the TPP partners on the lines of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement between the US and the European Union.

But Trump's initiative to protect American industries by slapping new tariffs and taxes on goods from China and Mexico have also added to China's unease as it stands to lose the advantages it had gained from globalisation.For the time being, Xi appears to be awaiting the US president's next move as indicated by his speech at the World Economic Forum, at Davos 2017.

He spoke in vigorous defence of globalisation and free trade. Though he did not name Trump or his bid for protectionist policies, Xi compared protectionism to "locking oneself in a dark room" while depriving oneself of light and air.

He cautioned countries pursuing their own interests at the expense of others.

"No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war," he added.

President Xi said that economic globalisation had become a Pandora's Box for many, but was not the cause for many global concerns.

For more than a decade, the US and China have built strong, multifaceted relations in many fields that bind them together.

Over the years, the two countries have mutually reinforced investments and trade between them.

So any radical change in the US trade policy with China could affect American business at home and abroad - as much as China.

President Xi is perhaps confident of evolving pragmatic working relations with the US, just as many American and Chinese businessmen seem to think.

Trump's emerging China policy will also impact India's trade, security and infrastructure development relations with China. Developments on Trump's positive pronouncements on the future of US-India strategic cooperation, strengthened during the Obama days, would also be carefully watched by China.

It will also keenly observe the developments and changes in the US-Afghanistan policy, as they have the potential to cramp Beijing's strategic initiative with Russia and Pakistan to bring the Taliban and Afghanistan to the discussion table.

The plate is full for both Beijing and Washington to develop a working equation on trade policies, strategic issues and other multilateral issues affecting the fortunes of not only China and the US, but many other nations, including India.