China or US, what Modi needs to do with them

Addressing the annual conference of Indian ambassadors in Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi advised the diplomats to shed "old mindsets" and project India as a leader of change and not as a mere "balancing force". He was trying to connect them with the determined move that India was making – and successfully too – to appear on the world scene in a big way.

India in the Modi regime has projected a newfound confidence in handling both the US and China on a note of healthy bilateralism. President Obama’s visit as chief guest for the Republic Day parade, have led India’s strategic analysts to speculate on how far has our country moved ahead in the company of the US, towards becoming a player with a determining role in global geopolitics. They must realise that a middle ground can exist between an enabling move like striking a defence deal and reaching a military "pact".

Outlook

The India-US relationship has advanced to the point of having reached specific agreements on matters of strategic importance such as the fight against global terror and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. At this level of leadership of the two nations, this relationship was, for the first time, defined as a "natural global partnership". The strong bid of Narendra Modi got the process started for building India-US convergence on terms that suit India.

Obama’s recent reference to the need for "communal harmony" in India may not affect this new equilibrium between the two countries, provided the US President acts quickly to dispel the impression that Indians based in America could run into any kind of racial prejudice. Any weakness of this kind can easily jeopardise the India-US grid built up so far.

The reference to "old mindsets" by Prime Minister Modi is relevant because shadows of the Cold War, Non-Alignment, and the Great Game still seem to affect the outlook of many observers in the present. A reality check on these distinct frames of the past should be in order. The emergence of a unipolar order on the demise of the former Soviet Union terminated the tense ideological divide of the world and ended the fear of another World War. Small nations who could now breathe the fresh air did, in many cases, take to local combat to assert their identity. Geopolitically however, the Cold War era is over.

As regards Non-Alignment it went – as far as India is concerned – with a compelling dependence on Soviet armaments and fighter aircrafts. However, this country never joined up with any anti-US configuration. India has since shed the baggage of those years and refashioned her international equations in the new world in a rational way.

The Great Game that revolved round Afghanistan – a country aptly described as "the geographical pivot of history" – had kept Pakistan in the American lap – much to the discomfiture of India. The term lost its meaning with the success of anti-Soviet armed campaign in Afghanistan. It has some bearing now on the new Sino-Pak axis which is, interestingly enough, giving advantage to China in ensuring that Afghan territory would not be used against the former. This reversal of the Great Game can only help to put India and US on the same side of the fence.

India’s strategic assessment is to be founded on these paradigm shifts. It is good to find that the approach of the Modi regime to foreign policy is typically Indian – perhaps Kautilyan – in the sense of being guided by India’s enlightened self-interest.

Dealings

India is bringing to bear a new realism in her dealings with China as well. Not long ago Communist Party of China regarded India as no more than a major power of South Asia and tinkered with the idea of "containing" India. The advent of the Modi government and its quick outreach in embracing Japan, US and Australia was noted by the pragmatic Chinese President Xi Jinping who struck a conciliatory cord when he visited Ahmedabad last year on the invitation of Modi. Xi wanted the border incidents to be seen in a totally "local" perspective and chose to highlight the oriental wisdom of the two countries.

Confident

It is good to see that India is now inclined, as a confident major power, to adopt an attitude of friendship towards all subject to the practice of robust bilateralism. As a non-aggressive nation we have to build our defence to a point where the adversary would be deterred from indulging in any misadventure.

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar has said, in his characteristically unambiguous style, that we have to be prepared for the worst case scenario of a joint Sino-Pak offensive against India. In the meanwhile, however, India’s new leadership is prepared to have dealings with China on the basis of mutual respect and economic bilateralism.

The collaboration for economic advancement and restraint in the matter of forging defence pacts is the mantra for India and the nation would like to see this strategy succeeding in the times ahead.