Why India was keenly watching a by-election in Mauritius
December 18 will remain a watershed moment in the electoral history of Mauritius when Mauritius Labour Party (MLP) candidate Arvin Boolell won the by-election in Belle Rose-Quatre Bornes constituency with a convincing margin. The immediate fallout of the election result is a big boost to the MLP which was almost vanquished into oblivion by the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) in the last general elections held in December 2014.
Another implication of the MLP victory in Belle Rose-Quatre Bornes, popularly referred to as [constituency] Number 18, is its virtual comeback in the run-up to the next general elections due in 2019. Some Mauritius watchers are even estimating a general elections before the scheduled date.
The recent victory of the MLP has infused immense confidence among the general public who seemed to have began losing confidence in the present ruling party - MSM - whose three-year rule under Anerood Jugnauth and later succeeded by son Pravind Jugnauth, is marked by internal bickering, business scandals, massive corruption and many more charges.
The governance is also marked by inept handling of the day-to-day administration. The only visible sign of the government has been the politics of vendetta, settling scores with the preceding government and proceeding with prosecution and persecution of the civil and police officers connected with the erstwhile regime.
No sooner than the MSM came to power, it humiliated the previous prime minister Navin Ramgoolam by not only slapping him with multiple charges of alleged corruption, nepotism and manipulation, but also roughing him up and insulting in public. A raid at his house recovering huge assets was carried out with a lot of intimidation against any civil decorum.
In a case during Ramgoolam's regime, two very professional police officers were not only arrested, but charges were incriminated against them just for following the former PM's orders. Where in the world police officers are subjected to such persecution for allegiance to their boss? They just follow orders. Yes, if the orders are wrong and detrimental to security or affecting someone's life, it's a different ball game. The helpless police officers, most competent assets of the republic, are still trying to extricate themselves from the maze of the complicated legal system, depriving the country of their professional acumen.
Immediately after assuming power, the MSM government allegedly unleashed a trail of fear among businessmen perceived to be close to Ramgoolam. They were questioned, coerced and forced to depose against Ramgoolam. So, the MSM's account of governance opened with a very aggressive vengeance policy. Businesses reeled under awe, apprehension and uncertainty.
Coming back to the outcome of the by-election of December 17, it was, by far, an election with the lowest voter turnout - a meagre 54.96 per cent. The constituency is predominately Hindu. This is a big setback for the ruling MSM.
The MSM needs to step on the gas ahead of the 2019 elections from now itself, as their three-year rule so far has done more damage than good. A lot of hard work has to be undertaken in various spheres. The general public seems to be disillusioned with the government. Muslims too are confused and seem heavily polarised. Some allude this factor to the November 2 Mauritius visit of Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, whose Hindu hardliner image is not particularly popular among Muslims, further driving a wedge between the two otherwise peace loving communities.
In support of the present government, it must be said that it initiated a number of projects, and almost all aided by India. It is pertinent to point out that PM Pravind Jugnauth has developed a fairly good working equation with the Indian government and his last visit to Delhi yielded tangible results. India has lent enormous credit and huge assistance to his government, but serious questions are being raised if the money is being well-allocated or not.
The Metro project has run into rough weather as there was no judgement or application involved in selecting the route. The start itself ended up in protests as they meant to dislocate a segment of population and some permanent fixtures. That prevailing ire calls for a quick redressal keeping in mind long-term plans.
Insiders confide that not everyone's happy with Indian support to Mauritius as there is an element of suspicion that the money is not being properly utilised.
On his part, Pravind Jugnauth wanted to capitalise on his photo ops with the Indian leadership. It must be recalled that in 2014 during the swearing-in ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his Mauritian counterpart Navin Ramgoolam was the only non-SAARC PM invited to the event. Almost eight months later, Ramgoolam lost the elections and that automatically severed all relationship with India.
The recently concluded election result has raised Ramgoolam's hopes in particular, and the MLP in general, to regain power in 2019 or even earlier. But that only time will tell.
Ramgoolam, after the recent by-election, looks comfortably poised in the wings to emerge at an opportune time. In either case, India should continue to hand-hold this tiny Indian Ocean island nation. The size of the country or its minuscule population doesn't matter. Their strategic and geo-political importance has to be kept in mind while making policies.
Maldives has a very small population and is closer to India than Mauritius, but it seems to be drifting apart from Indian influence and, according to fresh reports, is warming up to China. From security point of view, it's the last thing India can afford to allow - Maldives and China coming closer. In the same vein, Mauritius should also be dealt in an effective manner to keep the country sufficiently close to India, weaning away from China. This will also augur well as far as maritime security is concerned.