Why Rajdeep Sardesai said BJP may win UP elections 2017

In his column yesterday, senior journalist and India Today consulting editor Rajdeep Sardesai said that according to him the BJP has a good chance of winning the UP elections. Sardesai wrote in the Hindustan Times on March 2:

“I am putting my neck on the line once again and forecasting a likely BJP win in Uttar Pradesh. In a seemingly ‘wave-less’ election where 403 constituencies are witnessing fierce competition almost everywhere, this may be a big call to make. But there is reason to believe that the lotus is poised to bloom in the country’s most politically prized state.”

Sardesai went on to say:

“Firstly, the sheer numbers back the BJP’s claim to be UP’s party number one. In 2014, the BJP-led NDA got 42% of the vote and an astonishing 73 of 80 Lok Sabha seats. While that was an unusual ‘wave’ election, the fact is even a highly unlikely 10 per cent decline in the BJP vote could be enough to give it a leadership position in the state. The SP swept to power in UP in 2012 with 29 per cent of the vote, while in 2007, the BSP got a majority with 30 per cent of the vote.”

Since he has been inundated with questions on his Twitter and otherwise over his claim, Sardesai did a Facebook live to answer some of the queries that his readers and viewers have put forth.

In his video, Sardesai made the following major points:

1) The Samajwadi Party and the BSP are struggling with the plus vote, or the additional vote. They have their core constituency – Dalits for BSP and the Musim-Yadav combination for SP-Congress alliance - but what about the rest? Is it then advantage BJP in the non-Yadav, non-Muslim, other/most backward caste communities?

Sardesai explains that there might be a possibility that the BJP is appealing to a wider base of Hindus who have not been lured in by the SP-Congress alliance, or the BSP.

2) Sardesai also warded off allegations that he is “jinxing” it for BJP because he really doesn’t want them to win. It was a silly thing to say really because as a journalist Sardesai’s only concern is to report the reality and what he had seen around!

3) There’s a lot of goodwill for Akhilesh Yadav, the incumbent chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, but there’s also a mood for change. And the beneficiary for the parivartan is going to be BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

Because both Mayawati and Akhilesh have been tried and tested, it might be a case in which BJP is just given a chance to prove their mettle in UP.

4) Sardesai also mentioned Modi-led schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, which has made quite an impact in UP. According to the Ujjwala scheme, LPG connections to BPL houses are provided and seeing cooking fuel in poor households has created a goodwill for the prime minister which cannot be denied. This might help the PM is building a pro-poor connection.

But he also admitted that BJP did fall into the trap of polarising along religious lines, the effect of which could be seen in the election outcome.

5) However, Sardesai also made the disclaimer that he had indeed got it wrong in 1993 when he had predicted a “Ram Lalla wave”, but to his surprise, the SP-BSP alliance trumped the emotional appeal of Lord Ram. This means, ultimately, the voter turnout and a seat-to-seat fight would determine the outcome of the UP elections.

6) Sardesai also said that the joke in Lucknow is that Akhilesh is the new Netaji who has given 105 seats to the Congress and only five seats to the father. But the reality is this might cost the SP half a dozen seats because Shivpal and Mulayam Singh Yadav still have huge ground support.

7) Also, Akhilesh is a lone warrior who has had to put out Dimple Yadav to campaign extensively for him. The chinks in Akhilesh’s armour might be all too visible now.

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