Welcome to jungle raj: Will Nitish Kumar lose Bihar because of Lalu?

The India Today group-Cicero survey reveals that Nitish Kumar is the top choice for the Bihar chief minister's post with 29 per cent of the people who participated in the survey being in his favour, while only 19 per cent want Sushil Modi to lead the state. On the popularity index, in a poll conducted by Today's Chanakya, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was considered "very good" with 37 per cent, while Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar was also "very good" with 31 percent. The ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, on the other hand, has observed that Nitish, with a 52 per cent rating, is more popular than Modi, who has a 47 per cent rating in the state. According to the C-Voter pre-poll survey, more than 53 per cent of the participants said that they would like to see Nitish as the chief minister of Bihar. BJP's Sushil Modi is far behind with 18.4 per cent of the participants supporting him.

There is no unanimity, however, on the issue of who will form the government in the state. Some say the NDA has an edge but few think the Nitish-led Mahagathbandhan is ahead. Nitish may have trailed behind Modi as far as popularity rating is concerned, but each and every survey has found people considering Nitish to be the most suitable person to lead the state. But why is it that while Nitish is ahead in terms of popularity, his alliance is trailing the NDA?

Also read - Bihar polls: It's time Nitish-Lalu admitted defeat to Modi

Nitish has allied with Lalu thinking that he will bring his formidable Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank along with him. Lalu possibly thinks that this, along with Nitish's track record of good governance, will give him a comfortable majority. His calculation was that the RJD's vote share of 20 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, along with the JD(U)'s 16 per cent and the Congress' nine per cent would add up to 45 per cent. And that would be more than enough to counter the NDA's 39 per cent vote share which it got, thanks to the Modi wave.

Under usual circumstances, Nitish should get an absolute majority with such a good perception about him and his government and with such a formidable social base of his alliance. All the surveys should have indicated this. But it is not so. Who is pushing him down? He allied with Lalu's RJD to counter the Modi wave. But why is it not working?

Following Nitish's alliance with Lalu, the NDA has got a readymade issue to target - that of "jungle raj". Fifteen years of Lalu and his wife Rabri Devi at the helm of Bihar was portrayed as a period of "jungle raj" by their opponents. Nitish invoked this issue of “jungle raj” in all the ten elections — six Lok Sabha and four Assembly elections — that he contested after parting with the RJD in 1996. The moment he allied with Lalu, he not only lost this issue but by default became one of the partners in the "jungle raj".

Also read: How a resurgent Lalu is Modi's worst nightmare

But what was in that "jungle raj" which scares people? There are several stories of the horror of the infamous "jungle raj". Every Bihari has his own tale. But one horror story has been repeatedly told by the people, political observers and media. In May 2002, the second daughter of Rabri - the then chief minister - and Lalu, Rohini Acharya was getting married to Rao Samresh Singh, son of Rao Ranvijay Singh, a senior Mumbai-based income-tax official.

There was terror on the streets of Patna as Lalu's relatives let loose their goons to please him and to ensure that the function was a mega success. The RJD loyalists-miscreants ran amok on the streets of the state capital, raided car showrooms and drove away with as many as 50 brand new and unregistered cars. They took away Santro, Indica, Alto, Wagon R and Matiz cars from the showrooms for the transportation of VIP guests coming to attend the marriage from other places. They were neither thieves nor dacoits but merely doing it so that the VIP guests and baraatis of Bihar's first family could be ferried in comfort.

The list of car dealers raided in Patna included Mithila Motors, Karlo Automobiles, Ashiyana Holdings, Lawly and Sen, Daewoo Motors and Guinea Motors. The Patna Police, was either hand-in-glove with the goons or simply chose to look the other way, hoping that the storm would die down once the cars were returned. And they indeed were returned after a hue and cry! Few reports said that the drivers and fuel for the vehicles were arranged by some local policemen escorting the group of car lifters. At least 100 sofa sets and plush chairs were taken away to decorate huge pandals. These were not returned. Designer suits and clothes worth Rs 7 lakh from Raymond's exclusive showrooms, about 50kg of dry fruits and other grocery, confectionery stocks worth several thousands of rupees too were taken away.

Lalu dubbed it as propaganda to defame him. His brother-in-law Subhas Yadav, who allegedly was one of the orchestrators of the raids said, "Yeh sab galat baat hai. Kahin se koi gaadi nahi aayi hai, sab dost-yaar se maang kar laye the. Jo kahta hai ki gaadi le gaye hain, woh saamne aa kar bole (It's all a lie. Vehicles haven't been lifted from anywhere. They all came from friends. Whoever's making these charges should come forward and say it)." Another of his brothers-in-law Sadhu Yadav said, "No cars were lifted. Some friends gave them voluntarily."

For many businessmen and traders, this meant downing their shutters. The Patna operations of Tata Motors were closed and the staff, including some senior executives, was shifted to Kolkata. The affected businessmen were frightened to incur the wrath of state's first family. They had decided to quietly lick their wounds. According to a Bihar Chamber of Commerce and Industry report at that time, more than 10,000 traders and businessmen had fled the state during the time Lalu-Rabri were in power, fearing for their lives. Some of them had been kidnapped and/or killed for extortion.

The head of the ruling party at that time, Lalu was unperturbed by the controversy. This was just a trailer of the "jungle raj" that was played out in Patna under the gaze of the camera and under the alleged supervision of the Bihar Police. If this was the state of law and order in the capital, then one can imagine the state of affairs in the hinterland of Bihar.

This perception of the "jungle raj" is forcing even a die-hard supporter of Nitish to have second thoughts before casting his vote for his JD(U)-RJD alliance. They are unsure if Nitish can contain the RJD elements who created havoc in the state. And this issue of "jungle raj" is dominating the minds of Bihar's voters, overshadowing the perception of Nitish as a man who delivered good governance and development. If Lalu proves to be a baggage or a a prized catch for Nitish will be known only on November 8, when the results of the Bihar Assembly elections would be declared, but opinion polls suggest he is pulling Nitish down.