Suspending Jay Panda from BJD may hurt Naveen Patnaik's prospects in 2019 Assembly polls

In suspending Baijayant Jay Panda, the most-celebrated BJD MP, Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik has taken a calculated risk. To Panda and to all those who closely follow Odisha politics, the suspension has come as a big shock. 

Panda in his initial reaction tweeted his shock and hinted at a coterie led by a corrupt bureaucrat for the expulsion. He said there was a conspiracy to oust him from the party. Panda has been outspoken. Because of his affluent background, he has been foregoing many allowances and entitlements as an MP. This has created an aura of clean politics around him. Although from a regional party, he has a rich national presence.

With Panda out in the winter, politics in Odisha has opened up interesting possibilities. For the BJP, with whom Panda enjoys a cosy relationship, the political scenario is pregnant with great possibilities. The BJP's famed election machinery - Modi-Shah winning combination - now has one more opportunity to upset Patnaik's apple cart.

Patnaik has been very intolerant to criticism. His understated political persona has often deceived both his opponents within and outside. He has a simple, almost saintly image, which in many ways helped him win elections for four successive terms besides crushing inner party dissent. There is no indication that Patnaik's popularity has waned. But the BJP is growing steadily, chiefly at the Congress's expense.

In the local panchayat polls in the state last June, almost one third of the seats were bagged and as many panchayat administrations snatched by the BJP, defeating the BJD and replacing the Congress, to become the second-largest party in the state. The Congress's interminal decline and its high command has been particularly indolent in reversing the trend.

By removing Panda from the party, Patnaik has ended four-decade old family ties. Panda represents Kendrapara seat in the Lok Sabha, which for long was held by Naveen Patnaik’s father, Biju Patnaik, the most respected political name in the state.

However, for almost two years now, Panda has been toeing a pro-BJP line. His regular columns in The Times of India and The Indian Express were more noticed for their admiration of the Modi government than espousing the BJD party line.

If Panda joins the BJP, the party will gain immensely. It does not have many well-known articulate and accepted voices in the state. The BJP's growth is particularly noticeable in the tribal belt that constitute more than half the Assembly and Lok Sabha seats. Panda, until his suspension from the BJD, was the best-known and most-credible face of the party at the national level.

For the BJD, it is a big loss. The richest industrialist from the state, Panda also owns the popular OTV, the biggest television channel in the state. He has a considerable presence in national media and is quite active on social media as well. Of late, Panda has been seen attending functions organised by pro-Sangh Parivar outfits such as the India Foundation and Rambhau Mhalgi Prabodhini, Mumbai.

Even over controversial issues, including GST, demometisation and "intolerance", Panda's stance has been more in line with the BJP. From the beginning, he has been a great admirer of Modi. All this might have been upsetting to Patnaik. The last straw perhaps came when at a function in Kendrapara, Panda questioned Patnaik's commitment in fighting corruption. He alleged that corrupt officials who were brought to the CMs notice got protection instead of the stick at Patnaik's darbar.

Panda has referred to this "officialdom" in his latest tweet also. Karthikayan Pandyan, who has of late become the CM’s blue-eyed boy, is a Tamil Nadu cadre officer. According to various sources, Pandyan has a big say in Patnaik's moves. The CM has always been fond of officers dabbling in politics on his behalf. Earlier, it was an officer, Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, who became so ambitious that he started challenging his mentor. He was later thrown out. Mohapatra nurtured ambitions of becoming the chief minister in case Patnaik moved to the Centre. He later formed a new party and unsuccessfully contested the polls against BJD.

But Panda is different. He has a big clout in national politics. The BJD does not have another leader of his stature. Politics in Odisha has traditionally been feudal-centric. What the BJP has so far lacked here is this sort of clout. The possible entry of Panda can change the party's fortunes in the state. 

Panda may or may not pose a direct threat to Patnaik, but as a BJD insider, who knew more than Patnaik would have wanted, he can become a severe headache for the party and its chief ahead of the 2019 Assembly elections.  

Also read: BJP, desperate for Odisha, sniffs opportunity in Naveen Patnaik's BJD infighting