What PM Modi and politician Modi will do after Uttar Pradesh election victory
Normally every political party and every ruling politician faces mid-term blues as this is the time when a sitting chief minister or prime minister starts facing a backlash and his/her popularity dips considerably. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi defies all political conventions and norms.
Just before he completes three years of his five-year tenure he has single-handedly delivered the biggest-ever poll victories for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the all-important state of Uttar Pradesh as well as Uttarakhand.
This will inevitably bolster Modi in all roles - as prime minister, as BJP leader and as India’s biggest vote-catching politician of all times.
Riding on the crest of his unprecedented popularity which has skyrocketed after the victories in UP and Uttarakhand, you can expect a flurry of bold decisions from him in all possible areas - governance, economic and fiscal policies, political matters and foreign policy.
Political matters
Politically, his deep focus will be on his home state Gujarat which is due to hold Assembly elections by December this year. Therefore, one should expect increased visits to Gujarat from him. In fact, Modi has already launched his Gujarat expedition and visited Gujarat immediately after campaigning for the seventh and final phase ended in UP.
An upset defeat in Gujarat, now highly unlikely, would dent his achievements in the just-concluded Assembly polls. Obviously, Modi would have none of that and would leave no stone unturned to replicate his UP success in Gujarat.
Next, he will pick his choice for the post of UP chief minister. It is highly likely that the BJP’s choice for the CM’s post will be a low-profile MLA and a hardcore Modi loyalist, or the UP version of ML Khattar, the Haryana chief minister.
It seems highly improbable that Modi will install a political heavyweight like Rajnath Singh or Yogi Adityanath. He will like to see a timid person as the UP chief minister who doesn't pose any threat to him ever. Singh and Adityanath do not fit the bill from that logic.
Thereafter, Modi will pick his candidates for the two top constitutional posts of the country, president and vice president, elections for which are due in July-August. Again, the sole criterion for choosing his candidates for the two posts will be the person's total and unflinching loyalty towards him. That throws party veterans of the "margdarshak mandal" out of the window as all these veterans are now as good as expired cheques.
In Parliament, one should expect an even more aggressive and taunting PM. He will ruthlessly push important Bills and ride roughshod over the opposition despite the Congress party registering a comprehensive victory in Punjab and winning the Amritsar Lok Sabha bypoll by a massive margin.
Governance/policy issues
Modi will be emboldened to roll out ambitious policy reforms in and outside Parliament that he has held back so far. Expect him to unveil stringent policy decisions in all fields, particularly real estate and banking. A new policy of e-passbook for property owners should be expected soon aimed at giving a body blow to black money.
Foreign policy
Modi will go back to foreign policy issues in a big way after putting this subject on the back-burner for the past many months.
His biggest foreign policy outreach should be expected to be Pakistan. Formal talks with Pakistan should be expected soon. In any case, Pakistan has made several gestures like taking action against Lashkar-e-Tayyeba chief Hafiz Saeed to prepare a positive climate.
The intricacies of India-Pakistan bilateral relations are such that require to be discussed at length in a separate piece, but suffice it to say that Pakistan will now be on the front-burner of Modi's foreign policy outreach.
He will resume his foreign trips soon and is expected to visit Germany, Israel, Russia and China for bilateral/multilateral reasons. He will inevitably walk taller abroad than ever before and will deal with foreign leaders with an even more enhanced position of strength.
Foreign leaders will look at Modi with a bigger halo around him than ever before because they would know they are dealing with the Indian leader who is best poised to win a second five-year tenure in 2019.
His biggest foreign policy firework will come when he visits the US for his maiden summit with new president Donald Trump. He will inevitably walk taller than any Indian PM has in Washington so far. And of course there will be a high decibel Madison Square Garden 2.0.