How Owaisi's AIMIM and BJP will feed off each other in Bihar
The skyrocketing price of onions has cause immense worries for the BJP. Having had the bitter experience of losing the 1998 Delhi election for rising food prices, BJP would definitely not want to lose in Bihar as it is the last opportunity for them to shore up their Rajya Sabha numbers and push for economically important legislations in the Parliament, with which they have been struggling till now.
Last week, the All India All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) announced it will contest 25 seats in the upcoming Bihar elections in Seemanchal region of Kishanganj, Purnia, Katihar and Araria. According to an India Today report, AIMIM was contemplating to join the Janata Parivar coalition through talks with Lalu Prasad but apparently they fell out due to disagreement on seats.
It has rattled the secular "Janata Parivar" coalition of JD(U)+RJD+Congress, which is based on the premise that it aims to thwart the communal forces (mainly the BJP) in Bihar and minority votes would play a significant role in the elections.
In Maharashtra last year, AIMIM made an impressive debut in the Maharashtra state elections in October 2014, where it cut into the Muslim vote bank of Congress+NCP, won two seats and secured second and third positions at many places. During the Maharashtra state elections, I lived in Byculla, a Muslim majority area in Mumbai, where I had a chance to speak to many Muslims who told me that they saw AIMIM as a much more viable option to represent them than the so called secular parties which only used them as a vote bank. Almost every Muslim I spoke to voted for AIMIM and indeed, it won the Byculla constituency.
AIMIM's decision to contest elections in Bihar has come a bit late but it appears that AIMIM and BJP are hand in glove with each other as their core vote banks are exactly opposite. Their ideologies and respective leaders' statements might make it seem that they are professed enemies, but there are quite some similarities between the two:
1. Extreme right wing views
Both BJP and AIMIM are right wing parties, albeit with different religious ideologies. While BJP's core ideology is Hindutva and supports the call for India to be made a Hindu Rashtra (not directly), AIMIM's Owaisi brothers have repeatedly targeted Hindus in their speeches and made many hateful remarks.
2. Religion based politics
While it is not to say that Muslims and people from other religions do not vote for BJP, but its core focus has been to attract Hindu voters primarily in the country's Hindi heartland and cow belt. The surge of RSS and other Hindu fundamentalist organisations provides fertile ground to Owaisi to establish his base in those states.
3. Polarisation
Given both the parties' ideologies, it is obvious that polarisation will support each other immensely. While BJP is a much bigger party than AIMIM, both the parties stand to gain a lot from polarisation. For BJP, AIMIM helps to cut down their rivals' votes. For AIMIM, BJP helps them to consolidate the average Hindu vote bank.
After an embarrassing loss in Delhi, BJP has been making all out efforts to win Bihar. AIMIM's entry is expected to cause a significant damage to the Janata Parivar's Muslim vote bank, which will work in BJP's favour. Furthermore, BJP knows that AIMIM doesn't pose any danger to its electoral ambitions nationally as AIMIM is a much smaller party, but it can definitely be leveraged as a covert political ally to cut into Muslim votes of the so called secular parties in state elections.
Even in Delhi, there were some initial reports of AIMIM contesting few seats, but Owaisi realised that AAP's campaign didn't really focus on secularism or projecting itself as a saviour of religious minorities, and rather focused on genuine daily problems faced by the lower class - high electricity bills, water issues and rampant corruption, which is not the case in other states, therefore the chance of AIMIM making a dent in Delhi were extremely slim. For instance, in Bihar, the Janata Parivar has always accused of BJP being communal and a threat to minorities, which presents a strong case for Owaisi.
After Bihar, two significant elections are scheduled, where the BJP is eyeing to make a mark - West Bengal in 2016 and Uttar Pradesh in 2017, both having sizeable Muslim populations, and have a significant say in the votes. While BJP is neither a representative of Hindus and AIMIM is neither a representative of Muslims, as they claim to be, but the fact remains they are able to garner votes based on their religious appeal and provide the ideal fodder to each other for political gains.