Delhi will suffer if odd-even rule is here to stay

Delhi is having its moment under the sun. The odd success of the odd-even scheme in form of reduced congestion, less travel time, dip in peak pollution and better savings due to increased use of public transport has created a clamour for continuing the scheme beyond its scheduled end on January 15. But as tempting as it may be to play to the gallery and bow down to this clamour, a deeper analysis points out that the government would be imprudent in doing so.

The very reason the scheme succeeded was it that was done as an experiment and multiple stakeholders (revenue administration, schools, citizens, police, metro, etc) made sacrifices or diverted their resources from other avenues to make the scheme succeed. But if the scheme is converted into a permanent measure it will face multiple hurdles, important of which have been discussed below:

Schools reopen-extra transport burden

An important step the government took to make the scheme successful was direct the schools to close down during the period of the experiment.This reduced the burden on transport system and helped government deal with the surge in use of public transport. The government also ordered the schools to provide their buses for public transport, thereby temporarily increasing the capacity of public transport and making it smoothly handle the increased ridership.

But even if the odd-even scheme is made permanent, schools can't remain permanently shut. So the government will have lesser public transport capacity due to withdrawal of these schools bus and more users.

Lack of enforcement capacity

The problem won't just be about an overburdened public transport system, which is ill prepared to handle the traffic, but also that currently the enforcement machinery lacks capacity to enforce the scheme on permanent basis without affecting other government functions at risk.

To make the scheme a success, the primary enforcement agency like traffic police and transport department focused their energy and resources on ensuring compliance with the scheme. This meant that they temporarily ignored their other responsibilities. Out of the over 5,000 challans issued more than half have been issued by the revenue administration whose prime job is not enforcing traffic rules. But since it was only a 15-day affair, the neglect of other responsibilities of these agencies was not visible, but if the experiment is made permanent then either the enforcement will be a lot more lax or governance on other fronts will suffer.

More cars

If the scheme is made permanent then the longer term challenges like people buying a 2nd car will come into play. Because odd-even was marketed as only a 15-day affair, these issues which have plagued the scheme elsewhere didn't come into picture. But if the scheme is made permanent, more people will buy another car, defeating the very rational of scheme. So in absence of disincentives for car owners, randomised number plate allocation, continuing of the scheme on permanent basis may prove counterproductive.

Citizens' cooperation

The scheme succeeded because of large scale cooperation from Public which didn't see much in making work a temporary measure to tackle pollution in its worst phase. But getting people's cooperation on a permanent basis is an all together different thing.

Since winter pollution is visibly problematic people cooperated, but when summer comes and the pollution problem is not so apparent, will the same people cooperate? Also convincing people to sacrifice temporarily is easy but making them give up the luxury of car permanently won't be such a walk in the park.

From all the above objections it is clear that even while Delhi and its government deserves accolades for making success a scheme which few though would be successful, they would be imprudent in making it permanent hastily. The dynamics of making it permanent are all together different and needs to be factored in and offset before taking any such decision.

Perhaps Delhi government can plan to make it permanent after 6 or 12 months. In the meantime, it must take measures to increase public transport capacity, facilitate cyclers and walkers, increase enforcement capability, introduce complimentary rules regarding higher parking charges, higher car registration charges and randomised allocation of number plates. This will ensure that Delhi can then make a hassle free transition to permanent odd-even scheme or maybe the need for such a measure may then never arise as people voluntarily leave behind their cars due to presence of better alternatives.

For now the government should try to run a public campaign to make more and more people voluntarily continue with public transport or carpooling even after the compulsion to do so is withdrawn. This can be much more effective than forcing upon people a scheme which the system lacks the capability to carry on permanently with.

Delhi government must tread carefully, for its carries upon its shoulders a burden larger than just one cities fight against pollution. A nation of 1.2 billion is looking at it and any misstep may do tremendous harm to fight against pollution.