Why BJP and Congress can't afford to treat regional parties as 'dispensable friends' any more
The summer of 2018 is a hot one. It’s the season for political mating and seducing allies, as both the BJP and the Opposition are busy themselves networking in their backrooms to forge pre-electoral alliances.
As the 2019 elections turn into a contest between a set of two likely pre-poll alliances, need-based consortiums will firm up only once major partners cede political space to regional parties in seat adjustments. The strategic thrust for the Opposition lies in the obvious, that it outlines an alternative not only to the “idea of Modi”, but an alternative to “Modi’s idea of India”.
That alternative must go beyond the simplistic proposition for the voter of just being united against Modi. Because there is already voter ennui on both the BJP and the Opposition running negative campaigns that deflect from voter concerns.
National surveys
India has multiple in-depth quarterly surveys conducted with great authenticity which are indicative of “the mood of the nation”, the “PM’s popularity ratings”, and the ruling party’s “report card on performance”.
What we need now is a survey to gauge “the mood of the allies” as they weigh their options on who to ride with, and whom to ride on, up to the 2019 elections and beyond. In any Indian wedding, there are upstart uncles and aunts who throw tantrums before the event. It’s the same mood amongst regional allies, now in an assertive mode to extract their Shylock’s pound of flesh in seat adjustments.
In states that elect the largest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha, it is mostly the regional satraps who hold the key to powering any alliance, especially in West Bengal, Bihar and UP.
“The Index of Opposition Unity”, (IOU), will be directly proportionate to an internal assessment by each individual party to what I am terming as “the index of Modi’s winnabilty”. Further, achieving a high IOU as seen in recent by-elections, in no way, presages the same Opposition cohesiveness on a national scale. Should the Opposition at best achieve the optimum in IOU, it still does not fool-proof a guaranteed walkover for anti-BJP forces.
Dispensable friends
Conversely, BJP’s hubris in treating its allies as “dispensable assets” will equally humble down, proportionate to the strength of Modi’s popularity ratings, plus the BJP’s report card.
According to recent opinion polls, Modi’s personal popularity is higher than that of his own party, despite disappointments on delivery in governance.
His charisma, reminiscent of Indira Gandhi’s popular mass-connect in 1971, towers. Should the BJP not suffer an expected erosion in the next series of state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, and revive a winning curve, the Modi- Shah outreach to offended allies will be limited to extending just a few leaves of the olive branch, not the entire branch in hand.
At this stage of its ascendance, even though the party may have temporarily plateaued, practising cooperative federalism and inclusiveness towards regional satraps is uncharacteristic of the BJP.
This flexibility would then be seen as an act of weakness, other than in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala, or for that matter in Odisha, where it has minimal chances of invading those bastions.
Practising noble “coalition dharma” never came easy to the Congress either when it was at its zenith. Coalition became an existential necessity for survival only with its dwindling national dominance. That humility and sense of political subjugation towards allies is as of now a far cry for the BJP, a party that presently rules 70 per cent of India. So, it will most likely bend in its pacifist outreach towards its rebellious allies like JD(U), Shiv Sena and Akali Dal, but unlikely crawl before them.
In the run-up to 2019, arriving at a consensus on the ideal seat-sharing formula poses the biggest challenge for both the BJP-led NDA and the combined Opposition in UP and Bihar that hold the maximum Lok Sabha seats.
In UP, with Mayawati aspiring to play senior partner and pitching for 40 out of the 80 seats in the Grand Alliance, it leaves SP with 30 odd seats, and relegates Congress to a minimal seven seats. This, despite BSP’s having been routed in 2014 in the general elections and also in the 2017 Assembly elections.
For the BSP, it’s a fight to reinvent itself out of political obsolescence in allying with its bitterest rival, the SP. It’s no better for the BJP in Bihar, where it won 22 seats in 2014. But its alliance partner, JD(U), which won only two seats, now asserts its demand to contest 20 seats in 2019, thereby targeting to play the lead partner for Lok Sabha.
Opposition front
At best, should a united Opposition front be formed as a pre-poll alliance and should it win, it will ultimately succumb to a faulty post-poll power-sharing formula with a nationally obscure politician like Mamata, Mayawati or Tejashwi Yadav demanding prime ministership, depending on which alliance partner gets the highest number of seats.
At worst, if a united Opposition is not firmed up before elections, it will be a repeat of the Karnataka situation of a kingmaker becoming king by default, which would be anything but representative of the will of the people.
Whatever the outcome of a fractured mandate in the offing, every attempt must be made constitutionally to delegitimise and avert post-poll opportunism. It makes a mockery of the democratic process when parties that acrimoniously campaigned against each other coalesce without ideological commonality to form a government.
I end with a tweet that encapsulates that thought: “Cast of characters seeking prime ministership: Mamata in blood-soaked WBengal & chit fund scams; Mayawati with CBI corruption cases; RahulG with nil experience. Take your pick....”
(Courtesy of Mail Today)
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