7 reasons why AAP is likely to win Punjab

Economic unhappiness

1. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party now embodies a silent uprising against the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal and the opposition Congress. The state is desperate for a transformational departure from their near-similar economic policies.

2. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal's tight regulation of power, water and schooling bills in the national capital have resonated with Punjab voters. And so has his audacious anti-corporate activism.

Public support to the corporate order has considerably dwindled in the state's farm-based economy.

The AAP convenor seems to have sensed the people’s sentiment. He successfully exploited Rahul Gandhi's "suit-boot ki sarkar" slogan for the BJP to his own advantage — against the Akalis and the Congress leadership of Punjab — without copying it verbatim.

3. The aam aadmi (common man) doesn’t read election manifestos cover-to-cover. Journalists do. But Kejriwal's trademark subaltern approach in issuing multiple manifestos for a cross-section of people has worked in Punjab. His small booklets have generated sufficient headlines that sunk into the psyche of his target audiences. His message about their economic betterment was concise and clear.

4. Debt-ridden farmers of Punjab sold off their real crops for badly wanted cash. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's abrupt currency ban on November 8 turned their paltry earnings into worthless paper overnight. Worse, they were then forced to queue up outside cash points for the next two months.

Remember, Punjab had no Modi wave in 2014, as was evident from results the state produced in the General Elections back then. Debts were bad enough for the farmers, but demonetisation was the final straw that broke their trust in the governing coalition.

Subsequently, Kejriwal and his team tapped a lot into the pain and anger of the farming community.

Drug menace

5. Punjab's notorious drug trade and proliferation of prescription opioids didn't happen in a single decade of the Akali rule. It's a legacy from the first few years of militancy-free Punjab. Yes, substance abuse seemed to have peaked over the past ten years.

But many Punjabis do not fully exonerate the Congress for the scourge. They believe the UPA government at the Centre and Capt Amarinder Singh's in the state from 2002 to 2007 didn't work sincerely enough to root out cross-border smuggling and addiction.

Grassroots mobilisation

6. Kejriwal and his team appear to have felt the pulse of Punjab better than the Congress. Their mapping of the state's 117 constituencies — especially in the 68-borough Malwa region — has been phenomenal.

Frustrated with feudalistic leadership, many voters are drawn towards the Aam Aadmi Party for its novelty factor. Most of its candidates are fresh faces from the grassroots. This AAP formula worked in Delhi because of its originality. It will likely work in Punjab for the same reason.

7. Sikh groups opposed to the Badals for their stranglehold of their religious centres have been unable to create a parallel faith-centric formation. They won't support the Congress party because of Operation Blue Star and the Sikh massacre of 1984.

For them, empowerment of Kejriwal's AAP will eventually weaken the ruling dynasty, which they accuse of damaging the core doctrine and institutions of the Sikh faith.

Also read - How Arvind Kejriwal has shed his 'topiwalla' image in Punjab