BJP’s arrogance, Congress’ self goal: How AAP is back in the game for 2019 Lok Sabha polls
Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, whose sit-in protest against lieutenant governor Anil Baijal entered the seventh day on June 17, has found solidarity from four sitting CMs, who have slammed the Centre and said their support for the AAP was about “saving the democratic system of the country”.
Joining hands, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, Andhra CM N Chandrababu Naidu and Karnataka chief minister HD Kumaraswamy – they were in Delhi to attend the NITI Aayog meet – addressed a press conference at Kejriwal’s residence.
The four CMs slammed the central government for “restricting the federal system”, terming it a threat to the nation. They said they were denied permission to meet Kejriwal and the LG, asking how that was possible in a democracy.
Addressing a press conference, Mamata Banerjee sought Prime Minister Narendra Modi's intervention, saying, “The mandate of the people must be respected... If this is the condition of Delhi, it sends the wrong message to the rest of the country... We did not take this step immediately, but waited for six days. I had sent a message to Arvind ji three days earlier as well.”
Chandrababu Naidu said, “Our demand is very clear. They (Centre) must allow this government to function smoothly. The Centre and the state must work together. The problem has to be sorted out.”
Even JMM’s (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha) working president and former CM Hemant Soren tweeted in support of AAP, “I salute to the fight by Delhi for its rights. The AAP government in Delhi is forced to come on the street for its rights, which kind of democracy is it? Jharkhand is with the people of Delhi and with Kejriwal."
BJP is not learning from Congress’ mistakes
The ruling BJP, which had often accused the Congress of ignoring the BJP-ruled states and not working in the spirit of the federal system when the UPA was in power, now finds itself on the other side of the fence. It is increasingly being attacked for putting pressure on regional parties through CBI cases.
Several AAP ministers have been arrested or questioned by police. Even the CM was questioned in a case related to the assault on Delhi Chief Secretary Anshu Prakash. Whatever may be the outcome of these cases, the Centre has come out looking like a brute trying to subdue its opponents. Something that parties like the AAP have been quite successful in selling to their political constituencies.
In the recent case of the sit-in at the LG’s place, the ruling party, instead of addressing these concerns, chose to question the four CMs who were supporting the Delhi government. The official handle of the BJP put out a tweet asking if the four CMs would also support AAP leader Sukhpal Khaira’s stand on a referendum for Punjab’s secession from the Indian Union.
Such tactics, especially in an election year, may not go down well with the voters, many of whom, especially the poor and the lower middle class, have benefited from the AAP government’s schemes in Delhi.
Already under fire for ignoring the salaried class, the BJP could find itself facing the ire of these voters.
With atrocities against Dalits and minorities grabbing the headlines, and issues like agrarian distress out in the open, the ruling party could have tried to mediate between the Delhi government and the LG, and save itself some political heartburn.
Congress' self goal
Coming in the wake of the recent display of unity post-the Karnataka assembly elections, the protest has given the opposition another opportunity to display their strength and showcase the ruling BJP as arrogant. Something that the Congress had been accused of in the wake of Anna Hazare's Jan Lokpal movement and the Nirbhaya protests, where, instead of rapprochement, the ruling party chose to counter the protesters with accusations and brute force, not realising the strong undercurrent of popular support for the movement, along with the disillusionment with the ruling establishment.
The Congress, which until recently, had been making all the right noises about 'opposition unity' to fight the BJP, seems to have forgotten coalition dharma. Giving in to petty state politics, it was absent from these meetings.
Although earlier, after losing the 2013 assembly elections in Delhi to AAP, Rahul has said that they need to introspect and the strategy of AAP was interesting, the party has already started ignoring Kejriwal as a political novice and an one election wonder. Something that can cost the party dear in the coming elections.
While this was a great chance to embarrass the BJP, especially coming on the sidelines of the NITI Aayog meeting where the PM was also present, the Congress, it seems, decided to place their own electoral prospects in Delhi – where they lost out to the AAP – before opposition unity. Not letting go of their Delhi electoral defeat could cost Congress dear in 2019.
Kejriwal, who made his bones as a street fighter – being a part of the Jan Lokpal movement where he sat on a fast unto death for enactment of the Lokpal Bill, going on to form his own political outfit, the AAP, in November 2012, and effectively replacing Anna Hazare as the face of the anti-corruption movement – has already become the rallying point for the opposition.
The Grand Old Party needs to understand that the only way to effectively take on the BJP in Delhi in 2019 would be to have some sort of understanding with the AAP. The party seems to have missed this opportunity to show that it is not arrogant, an allegation that has been leveled against it quite regularly.
Bargaining for opposition unity
The Opposition strategy to form a grand alliance against a formidable ruling party is not new. It has been tried out in 1971, 1977 and 1989. After Indira Gandhi’s attempts to bolster her position through populist measures suffered setbacks in the Supreme Court, she announced early elections, for February 1971. The result was the first-ever experiment of national parties forming a grand alliance for the Lok Sabha polls, loosely called the National Democratic Front (NDF).
The Opposition's formula was “one constituency, one candidate”. They gave a call for “Indira hatao”, which she countered with the slogan of “garibi hatao”. Indira swept the polls and came back to power.
Writing about the election in his book, Divided We Govern: Coalition Politics in Modern India, historian Sanjay Ruparelia suggests that Indira’s decisive image trumped the hotchpotch Opposition coalition. “The electorate, fearing that a hung Parliament would exacerbate the politics of opportunism and extremism that had marred the SVD (Samyukta Vidhayak Dal) governments, voted for “change and stability”,” he wrote.
In a redux, BJP president Amit Shah, perhaps drawing from history, on May 26 said that while the Opposition’s agenda was “Modi hatao”, the BJP was focused on removing “poverty”.
While the BJP has certainly woken up to the danger posed by the coming together of the grand alliance, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh, the Congress, it seems, is still testing the waters.
Deciding to fight the Karnataka polls on its own, the party was forced to go in for a post-poll alliance with the JD(S) to keep the BJP out of power. It even offered the CM post to HD Kumaraswamy, despite winning more seats.
A few words in support of Kejriwal would have gone a long way in securing its own position within the alliance and also cemented Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.
Having already earned the sobriquet of a “naxal”, quite in vogue nowadays especially if one is not toeing the ruling party’s line, (senior BJP leader Subramanian Swamy has accused the Delhi CM of being a naxalite, even ex-AAP minister Kapil Sharma shared the sentiment), Kejriwal revels in these protests. He is in his element when out on the streets protesting, something that he did quite effectively during the 2011 anti-corruption movement.
Feeling isolated after the opposition alliance post-the Karnataka polls and with no hardcore caste or religion voter base to call his own, Kejriwal will have to play the victim card and garner public sympathy.
This will also put pressure on the Congress and other regional parties to include the AAP in their alliance, and also help in effective bargaining during seat-sharing talks. Something that parties like the Congress are not very keen on.
With the election year already upon us, Kejriwal knows the political survival of the AAP hinges on getting public support and playing the victim card.
While it’s true that several initiatives of the AAP government (door-to-door delivery of services and installation of CCTVs) could not see light of the day due to the delay by the LG's office, the Delhi CM himself has not showed any real intent to mend fences.
Forever the street fighter, if there is one thing that Kejriwal knows well, it is to punch above his weight.
The Delhi CM knows that to have a fighting chance in 2019, he will have to take on Modi, either directly or through the LG.
In this David-versus-Goliath fight, he would be hoping the voters side with the underdog - something that worked quite effectively in his favour both in 2013 as well as in 2015.
Also read: A bold new stand: Why Rahul Gandhi is ready to take on the RSS