In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, why perceptions will matter more than reality
As the cliché goes, perceptions are more important than reality in matters of governance, perhaps even more dangerous when damaging narratives are not controlled in time. To tweak a famous Shakespearean expression in this context, there is a tide in the affairs of governance, which, if taken at its flood, can lead to political fortune. On such a turbulent sea is the Modi government now afloat, beset with disappointments of promises unmet, and now on the defensive with the recent revelation unleashed by former French President François Hollande.
Rafale allegation
In doing so, regardless of the motive or veracity of the allegation, Hollande has virtually lent a lifeline to Rahul Gandhi on which to build his offensive ahead of the upcoming elections in the BJP-ruled states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. And BJP must put up a formidable rebut before perceptions fester and take on a virality of their own.
Just months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the issues that are coming to the fore are the kind Rahul Gandhi aspired for last year to cause an ‘earthquake’. Hollande has surely facilitated Gandhi’s political-quake, putting the establishment on the mat for now. And dousing misperceptions needs adequate and convincing counter-messaging because it’s turning into strong ammunition for the Opposition clamouring for issues, as also turning into the very glue that binds an otherwise ideologically incohesive front.
For the Gandhis, the Hollande bombshell must feel like a political nemesis for Bofors, allegations on Robert Vadra’s land deals, and the National Herald case, which nowhere chastises dynasty, but surely deflects attention. And strategically, insisting on a JPC probe gives wings to Gandhi’s electoral campaign to keep the issue animated till 2019.
The fusillade of aspersions cast on a government that came to power on the promise of transparency surely puts it on the defensive. It equally embarrasses Dassault, the maker of Rafale, for kowtowing to the Indian government’s ‘offset clause’, which according to Hollande, hinged on the OEM ploughing back 50 per cent of the contract value in setting up manufacturing facilities with a perceived crony of the Indian PM, the Ambani-owned Reliance Defence.
What is obfuscated in the FAQ’s put forward by Congress is that DRDO was awarded Rs 9,000 crore worth of offset contract, and that while Reliance may have won the lion’s share, it is not the only beneficiary, as Tatas, L&T and 72 other vendors are being allocated offset contracts for the remaining `21,000 crore. So whatever made Hollande squeal retrospectively more than three years after the order was placed under his tenure, providing timely fodder for India’s Opposition?
The devil, of course, would lie in the details of CVC and CAG assessing if procedural irregularities or price impropriety actually transpired. What stuns is the timing of these stinging revelations in the run-up to what is expected to be the most vitriolic post-Independence combat in the build-up to a quasi-presidential style election between Modi vs Rahul Gandhi, though the latter would be positioned as the ‘ghost’ opponent of an amorphous and faceless Front.
Modi matters
“History has shown Indians vote for leaders, not parties.” If so, then the protagonist for 2019 is still Modi, which is an unexplainable mismatch and a contradiction hard to reconcile with current ground realities. Because the realities are harsh, with vast pockets of societal discontent; the depreciating rupee due to US tax-cuts and monetary tightening; deteriorating external macros due to trade wars, and the appreciating Dollar that has spiralled global currencies and imbalanced economies; and the asymmetrical price of petrol imposed on the consumer even when commodity prices were at a low.
The common man doesn’t care about macroeconomics; he just wants to know why his purchasing power has diminished. That’s not the end of the Modi sarkar’s woes. There is a crisis of confidence with governance issues in private as well as public sector banks, rightly attributed to legacy issues of UPA II regime due to lack of due-diligence during loan-dispersal and subsequent lack of vigilance on defaulters who ‘evergreened’ their loans by gaming the system, which necessitates more stringent fine-tuning of India’s Bankruptcy Code. Because the domino effect has spilled over to the carnage in the markets, culminating in the recent IL&FS defaults, making the recently released figure of 8 percent GDP growth seem like a blip.
Negative news
The sense of déjà vu is reminiscent of the American sub-prime of 2008 for investors, nervous if this is symptomatic of larger problems in the NBFC space and poses serious threats due to inter-linkages that threatens to drag the larger macroeconomy down?
Again, perceptions will be more important than reality, as negative news flow overshadows much of the stellar initiatives of the Modi government, putting the regime on the defensive yet again. Because hordes of small investors, who had begun to invest their savings in mutual funds post-demonetisation, could get singed. And the finance ministry has yet to step in to dispel investors’ fears.
While it will take more than the Rafale allegations, a sliding rupee, or escalating oil prices to upset the Modi-Shah election apple cart, the pre-campaign atmosphere is laden with nervousness and fear more than hope. And ‘hope’ was Modi’s calling card that endeared him as messiah to the masses in 2014. With the fabled ‘lame-duck’ phase around the corner that all governments go into pre-elections, the Modi sarkar has little time to salvage, redeem and retrieve slipping ground so as to confront a ‘Modi versus All’ with all its might.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)