Why Congress is unlikely to ally with AAP in the 2024 elections
As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw closer, opposition parties are scrambling to form alliances and present a united front against Narendra Modi's BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
In a recent opposition meeting convened by Bihar CM Nitish Kumar in Patna, 17 political parties were in attendance, including Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Shiv Sena (UBT), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), National Conference (NC), CPI, CPI (M), CMP, Janata Dal United (JDU), and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
However, notable by their absence during the press conference was Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which threatened to boycott the meeting due to its disagreement with the Congress Party.
AAP stated that it would not participate in the meeting with Congress until the latter extends its support to Kejriwal's AAP regarding the Center's ordinance on the transfers and postings of bureaucrats in Delhi.
It is worth noting that Congress has always maintained a considerable distance from Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. This indicates that while Rahul Gandhi may attend opposition meetings, he is unlikely to concede any ground to the AAP party before the 2024 elections.
Reasons why Congress might not ally with AAP:
AAP's limited presence in general elections
Despite being recognized as a national party, Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has a limited reach, primarily confined to a few states. Apart from Punjab and Gujarat, where it holds a notable vote share, AAP's presence in the general elections is minimal.
In 2014, AAP won only four seats in Punjab. In 2019, it lost three out of the four seats it previously held, retaining only one seat in Sangrur. In Delhi, AAP failed to win any seats in both 2014 and 2019.
It primarily relies on Congress' support in Gujarat and Goa, while the BJP's vote bank remains unaffected.
Therefore, Congress and other parties are aware that allocating seats to AAP might jeopardize their own seat share within the opposition alliance.
AAP replaced Congress in Delhi
It is widely known that AAP's emergence in Delhi came at the expense of the Congress party. After facing backlash in 2011 due to the Commonwealth scam and 2G spectrum corruption allegations, Congress witnessed a decline in popularity.
Arvind Kejriwal and Anna Hazare's "India Against Corruption" movement capitalized on this discontent. While the BJP retained its voter base in the 2013 Delhi assembly elections, winning 32 seats, AAP secured 28 seats, significantly impacting Congress' vote share.
The party that had ruled Delhi for nearly 15 years, led by Sheila Dixit, was reduced to just eight seats.
In subsequent assembly elections in 2015 and 2020, AAP maintained control over Congress' vote share, with Rahul Gandhi's party failing to secure any seats. This history may deter Congress from aligning with AAP.
Does Kejriwal want an alliance?
Arvind Kejriwal might profess his angst against the Congress today, but he has time and again requested the party for an alliance. Kejriwal once told a journalist that AAP had put efforts to form an alliance with Congress party, but Rahul Gandhi was not responding.
However, Rahul Gandhi, who very well remembers the deeds of the AAP party against the Congress has been reluctant to show any wish for an alliance.
In fact, Rahul Gandhi has never been seen sharing a stage with Kejriwal.
What’s next?
The next meeting of the opposition parties is expected to be held in Shimla. It remains to be seen whether Congress and AAP will share the dias.
For now, it doesn’t appear that the Congress party is in any mood to join hands with the AAP.