What is happening in Maharashtra politics?
Maharashtra is facing a major political crisis. The ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government is facing a revolt from the inside. There are fears that the breakaway faction may be poached by the Opposition BJP, and the current government may fall.
This form of political crisis has been witnessed one too many times in the country – from Karnataka to Madhya Pradesh – with BJP coming out as the winner.
What’s happening in Maharashtra? The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government formed with the coalition of the NCP, Shiv Sena, and Congress is facing a major revolt. There is a possibility that the government may fall.
Who’s revolting? Urban Development Minister in the Maharashtra government Eknath Shinde, from Shiv Sena, is leading the revolt. Shinde has been a long-trusted member of the party, however, reports said he felt sidelined lately by the party.
Eknath Shinde has claimed to have the support of 46 MLAs. He said that his main demand is for Shiv Sena to form a coalition with the BJP.
Shinde and the rebel MLAs were holed up in Surat, Gujarat, but are now in Guwahati, Assam. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma (of BJP) is said to have met the rebels in Guwahati.
How did the revolt begin? The revolt seems to be a result of back-to-back setbacks for the MVA. But most recently it seems to be due to the MLC election results. BJP managed to perform better than the MVA in the MLC elections, winning all the 5 seats it contested on. While the NCP and Shiv Sena won two seats each and Congress won just one seat.
It is suspected that some MVA MLAs also cross-voted making Shiv Sena chief and Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray very angry and called for a meeting.
Besides the loss in Rajya Sabha and MLC elections, MVA has also faced the heat of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on several cabinet ministers of Maharashtra.
Uddhav Thackeray is facing the challenge of a revolt within the party for the first time since the death of his father Bal Thackeray.
What now? The outcome of this revolt is unknown. While the MVA feats 'Operation Kamala' or horse-trading by the BJP, the BJP is safe guarding its 106 MLAs to prevent poaching by the MVA.
Nonetheless, Shinde will need at least 37 MLAs by his side to legally break away from Shiv Sena and not attract disqualification under the anti-defection law. If he gets the strength, he will be able to back whatever party he wants and the MVA will not be able to pass the floor test.
The current state of the Maharashtra assembly:
Total strength of the assembly: 285
Shiv Sena: 64
NCP: 57
Congress: 44
(MVA: 165)
BJP: 148
If Shiv Sena's rebel MLAs estimated at 35, split from the party, the scenario will look like this:
Shiv Sena: 29
NCP: 57
Congress: 44
(MVA: 130)
Rebels: 35
BJP: 148
NCP and Congress have said that their MLAs are united.
There are six likely scenarios, according to India Today TV:
As of now, Sena leader Sanjay Raut has tried to downplay the revolt, while also saying that in the worst-case scenario they’ll lose power but not their ideals. NCP, on the other hand, has asked party members not to interfere in Shiv Sena’s internal matters. Congress is keeping a close watch on the crisis.