Did the plane of ruthless Wagner chief Prigozhin fall out of the window, Putin-style?

In what seems like a plot out of a spy thriller, Russian warlord and Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has reportedly died in a plane crash near Moscow, two months after he led a brief-lived mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian Aviation Authority has confirmed that Prigozhin was on the passenger list of the private jet that crashed around 15:19 GMT on August 23.

The plane was carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, his right-hand man, and Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin along with eight others including three crew members. All 10 are said to have been killed. According to the BBC, all the bodies have been recovered. 

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What it means?

• The mercenary group boss's purported death is a major turning point for the Russian military, its war in Ukraine, and the political chaos surrounding Putin's leadership and the Russian elites. So far, Vladimir Putin has not commented on Prigozhin's death. 
• There are obvious questions being asked about what led to the plane crash. And fingers are inadvertently being pointed at Putin.
• Russia said it has opened an investigation into what caused the plane crash. But speculations are rife that the plane was deliberately shot down by the Russian military to kill Yevgeny Prigozhin.

• BBC reported that the Wagner-linked Telegram channel Grey Zone claimed the jet had been shot down by the Russian military but did not provide any evidence. It also said that a second jet owned by Wagner Group landed safely. 
• World leaders, politicians, and observers are all saying that the development is hardly is a surprise. 
• US President Joe Biden said he was not surprised at the news.  

• Conservative British MP Alicia Kearns said that for Putin betrayal is an unforgivable and ultimate sin and he's been accused of offing some who went against him even on British soil. 

• Some even suggested that the tactic was standard Putin operating procedure. Those who defy Putin either mysteriously fall out of windows or die in other mysterious circumstances. 

The message

• Whether there is foul play in Yevgeny Prigozhin's death or not, one thing the world thinks is clear is that Putin has sent a message clear and loud. Those who defy him will pay the price and it doesn't matter how high up the rank that person is.
• For a while, observers and even Russian journalists had looked at Prigozhin as a "dead man walking" following the short-lived mutiny against Putin. 

Who was Yevgeny Prigozhin?

• Yevgeny Prigozhin was a close confidante of Putin and was referred to as "Putin's chef" because he owned a number of restaurants that provided food to the Kremlin.
• He was a convict in the erstwhile Soviet Union and managed to build the Wagner Private Military Company later on. 
• Wagner PMC has been at the forefront of Russian military operations in Ukraine, dreaded for their ruthlessness. 
• It has also been involved in Russian interests in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and several other countries and has been closely integrated into the Russian Defence Ministry and its intelligence arm, the GRU.
• In Ukraine, he led an army of convicts, rapists, and murderers to fight on the front line. 

• But he had become critical of the Russian military and defence ministry in the months leading up to June this year when he openly led a mutiny against the Kremlin. Though he never named Putin as his adversary, his authority was clearly challenged. 
• Kremlin managed to cut a deal with Wagner Group which involved Prigozhin moving to Belarus. But this left Putin coming out of the whole ordeal as a weakling.
• While Prigozhin briefly moved to Belarus, he was seen in Russia on several occasions and reportedly in the Central African Republic recently too promising to expand their presence in the country.

What will happen to Wagner Group?

• People in St Petersburg are paying tribute to Prigozhin by leaving flowers and candles at the Wagner Group HQ, which was lit up with windows showing a cross. It is clear that he enjoyed quite the public support within PMC and outside of it. 

• There is concern that Prigozhin's death may make him a martyr, which is bad news for Putin if there is foul play involved. 
• This could result in Prigozhin's admirers and followers from the Wagner Group starting a rebellion of their own in revenge against the Kremlin. 
• But reports also state that Prigozhin's death is unlikely to be seen as martyrdom, at least if no evidence of foul play is unearthed. 
• An US-based think tank, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said that Putin spent the last two months weakening the Wagner Group and separating Prigozhin from the mercenary force, undermining his authority. 

• This could mean that Wagner Group mercenaries are more likely to be interested in payments and deployments than their loyalty towards Prigozhin.